(Adds comments, background)
By Stefano Rebaudo
June 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields dropped
from multi-week highs on Monday after Iran announced the end of
its military operations against Israel.
Investors were still cautious about the possibility of a
swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would ease energy
supply constraints, lowering inflation pressures while reducing
expectations of further monetary tightening and pulling bond
yields lower.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for policy rates, were down 0.5 basis points (bps)
to 2.68%, after hitting 2.734% early in the session, the highest
since May 20. They reached 2.771% in late March, the highest
since July 2024.
Money markets are pricing the ECB deposit rate at 2.69% by
December, from the current 2%. They also
priced in over a 90% chance of a first rate rise this month,
followed by a second in September.
Investors are bracing for the ECB policy meeting later this
week, where a 25-bp rate increase is widely anticipated.
"The data currently available is indeed insufficient to
assess the magnitude or persistence of the shock from the Middle
East conflict, while higher input costs are not being fully
passed through to final prices and demand pressure remains
weak," Alessia Berardi, head of global macroeconomics at the
Amundi Investment Institute, said.
"Our projections currently rule out a return to lower rates
in 2027 following the mild hikes we expect for 2026, as we see
the core consumer price index (CPI) remaining around 2.5%," she
added.
Amundi Investment Institute expects a 25-bp precautionary
hike in June, to be replicated in the third quarter of this
year, conditional on data release.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
euro area's benchmark, was flat at 3.04%, after hitting 3.072%,
the highest since May 22. It reached 3.13% in late March, its
highest level since June 2011.
"With renewed clashes in the Middle East and higher oil
prices, 10-year Bund yields are unlikely to fall below the 3%
mark for the time being," Rainer Guntermann, rate strategist at
Commerzbank, said.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield was
roughly unchanged at 3.81%. The yield gap of Italian government
bonds versus bunds was at 75 bps. It was at 63 bps
on February 27 just before the outbreak of the Iran war and hit
103.62 in late March, the highest level since June 2025.