(Updates with afternoon trading)
* Inflation data mixed in major euro zone economies
* ECB seen likely to hike interest rates in June, but
markets doubt further tightening this year
* Iran deal hopes, oil prices driving rate expectations
By Lucy Raitano
LONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields
steadied on Friday as investors assessed mixed inflation figures
from the bloc's major economies while awaiting more details of a
potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the
U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the
euro zone, was steady at 2.96%. It has fallen 7 basis points
this month, as investors grew more optimistic about a potential
Iran peace deal, in turn bringing oil prices down and tempering
bets on European Central Bank interest rate hikes.
The two-year German bond yield - more sensitive to
ECB interest rate expectations - was a whisker higher at 2.56%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Inflation in the euro zone's four largest economies hovered
above the ECB's 2% target for a third straight month in May,
preliminary data showed on Friday, as a rise in fuel costs
triggered by the war began to feed through to other prices.
Country-specific figures were mixed. While German figures were
cooler than expected, the Spanish reading was hotter than
expected, as was Italy's. In France, inflation came in below the
forecast but crept higher on a month-over-month basis.
That data did little to change expectations of an ECB rate hike
next month, which money markets see as all but certain. However,
they have turned more sceptical about policy tightening later in
the year, pricing a second hike by October, but only seeing a
small chance of a third move by the end of the year.
CHANGING ATTITUDES AMONG EURO ZONE CONSUMERS
Rate expectations are swinging on headlines from the Gulf and
resulting moves in oil prices.
Iran said on Friday it was looking for actions, not words
from the U.S. after Reuters reported, citing sources, that
President Donald Trump was weighing an initial agreement to
extend the ceasefire and open the strait.
"In terms of market reactions, if a deal is agreed upon, we
should see another leg higher in risky assets and lower in
rates. However, positioning suggests that the rates market
should see a greater reaction than equities," Mohit Kumar, chief
European economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note.
"For the ECB, we can see one hike (in June), simply because they
have to justify their inflation credibility," Kumar said.
Underscoring that idea, ECB research on Friday showed euro
zone consumers, already scarred by the Ukraine war, have changed
their attitudes more quicklyin response to the Iran conflict,
meaning the economic hit could be deeper and faster.
"Today's inflation data are further cementing the case for a
rate hike," Rabobank analysts said in a note, as they also
flagged a pick-up in consumers' medium-term inflation
expectations.
"However, we still believe that the current backdrop is less
conducive to broader and protracted inflationary pressures than
2021-2022."
Separate data, however, showed France's economy shrank
slightly in the first quarter, missing the preliminary reading
of no change in the euro zone's second-largest economy.