(Updates prices)
* Dollar holds firm on risk aversion
* Oil prices, bond yields rise on fresh Middle East
tensions
* Yen weakens, investors stay alert for intervention
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped against
most major currencies on Monday, but held near last week's highs
as the Middle East conflict continued to nudge oil prices and
global bond yields higher, while the yen weakened enough to keep
traders watching out for possible intervention.
The euro was last up 0.1% at $1.1635 and sterling
was up 0.3% at $1.3351.
The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against
six others, was a touch softer at 99.17, having posted its
strongest weekly performance in three months last week.
"It appears conditions for risk and bonds are deteriorating
and conditions for the dollar rally to extend this week are
ripe," analysts at Barclays wrote in a note.
Signs that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for
longer are also exerting upward pressure, with the dollar
gaining 0.5% to 1% for every 10% rise in oil prices, they added.
Oil prices climbed on Monday, with Brent crude futures
rising more than 1% to over $110 a barrel, after a nuclear power
plant in the United Arab Emirates came under attack and efforts
to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran appear to have stalled.
Further denting risk appetite, last week's global bond rout
extended into Monday, as rising energy prices prompted investors
to assume central banks could quickly raise rates.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were up 1
basis point on the day at 4.603%, having risen by 15 bps in the
last two weeks alone.
Commerzbank strategist Michael Pfister said shifting
expectations for interest rates - and the subsequent rise in
bond yields - were at the heart of the dollar's relative
resilience.
"Although expectations regarding the Fed had shifted
significantly towards a more restrictive monetary policy from
the outset, market participants were still reluctant to bet on
interest rate hikes. This changed last week, with expectations
regarding the Fed shifting most markedly among the G10," he
said.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting and U.S. flash
purchasing managers' surveys later this week should help clarify
how concerned the central bank is about persistent inflation and
whether activity momentum is holding up, Christopher Wong, FX
strategist at OCBC, said in a note.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 50% chance that the
Fed would raise rates by December, according to the CME FedWatch
tool.
Investors are also watching as the Group of Seven finance
ministers and central bankers meet in Paris on Monday and
Tuesday to discuss how to bring a lasting end to the war in
Iran.
The yen last traded at 158.94, around its weakest since
April 29, which put investors on alert for a possible
intervention.
Officials in Tokyo intervened a couple of times in late
April and into early May, which saw the yen strengthen by around
3.5% in the days that followed, but the currency has given up
roughly 7% of that rally already.
Japan's government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of
funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow
from the Middle East war, a government source with direct
knowledge of the deliberations told Reuters on Monday.
Meanwhile, the offshore yuan weakened to 6.808 yuan per dollar
. The meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and
Chinese President Xi Jinping last week offered no major
breakthroughs, while data released on Monday showed China's
growth lost momentum in April.
HSBC strategists said in a note on Monday they believed the
yuan has more scope to appreciate against the euro than against
the dollar, the yen or the Korean won.
(Additional reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong; Editing by
Thomas Derpinghaus, Susan Fenton and Chizu Nomiyama )