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FOREX-Dollar drifts before Fed, euro set for first monthly drop this year
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FOREX-Dollar drifts before Fed, euro set for first monthly drop this year
Jul 29, 2025 10:44 PM

*

Euro down 1.9% in July, dollar index set for monthly gain

*

U.S.-China talks constructive but no major breakthroughs

*

Spotlight on Fed and Powell later on Wednesday

*

Yen firms after tsunami warning, BOJ due on Thursday

(Updates to Asia afternoon)

By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE, July 30 (Reuters) -

The U.S. dollar wobbled near a one-month high on Wednesday

ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, while the euro

was poised to snap its run of six straight monthly gains as

investors

counted

the cost of the

U.S.-EU trade pact

.

The Japanese yen firmed against the dollar

after a powerful earthquake struck off Russia's Far Eastern

Kamchatka Peninsula and generated a tsunami, prompting

evacuation warnings in the area and across most of Japan's east

coast.

Currency markets were mostly steady as investors were

hesitant to place bets before crucial economic reports and

central bank meetings in Canada, Japan and the United States.

U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to seek an extension of

their 90-day tariff truce, following two days of what both sides

described as constructive talks in Stockholm.

No major breakthroughs were announced and U.S. officials

said it was up to President Donald Trump to decide whether to

extend a truce that expires on August 12.

The Sino-U.S. talks come after a framework deal between the

U.S. and EU was announced on Sunday. The accord has evoked a mix

of relief and concern from Europe, as the agreement was lopsided

and skewed towards the United States.

Investors have been keeping an eye on the trade pacts as

countries scramble to get deals over the line before the August

1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

"Markets seem to be increasingly interpreting trade

agreements as symbolic and tactical rather than structural

resolution," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at

Saxo in Singapore.

"With terms often vague and enforcement mechanisms weak,

investors are assigning lower market beta to these negotiations

unless backed by concrete detail."

The euro firmed a bit to $1.1555 after dropping

for the first two days of the week and hitting a one-month low

of $1.15185 on Tuesday. The euro is up 11.7% since the start of

the year but on course for its first monthly drop this year.

The single currency has benefited this year from the dollar

losing its lustre due to Trump's erratic trade policies,

prompting investors to look for alternatives.

Sterling was at $1.3355. The Australian dollar

last bought $0.6514, steady on the day, after a set of

surprisingly soft inflation figures that only cemented

expectations for an interest-rate cut next month.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency

against six others, was at 98.823, hovering near a one-month

high and on course to post its first month of gains this year.

Investor focus will now switch to central bank meetings,

with the Fed widely expected to stand pat on rates later on

Wednesday, making comments from Chair Jerome Powell crucial to

gauge the policy path.

The meeting comes in the wake of Trump's constant demands

for rate cuts, which have coincided with an unrelenting campaign

of attacks on Powell by the president and administration

officials.

There is speculation that Governor Christopher Waller and

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman could issue dissents

if the Fed on Wednesday holds the policy rate steady for the

fifth time since December. Both were appointed by Trump as was

Powell.

"While dissenting isn't uncommon, the dissents at this

week's meeting may get more focus because Trump has made it

crystal clear that he thinks the FOMC should be lowering

interest rates," said Kristina Clifton, a senior economist at

the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

"Dissents at this meeting may be judged as political and put

a dent in perceptions of the FOMC's independence."

The BOJ is also expected to stand pat and the spotlight will

be on comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda as investors hope the

recent trade deal between Japan and the U.S. paves the way for

the central bank to raise interest rates again this year.

The yen firmed 0.4% to 147.85 per dollar and was last at

148.06 after news broke about the Pacific earthquake and

tsunami, with investors on alert for any damage to key

infrastructure in Japan.

Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the yen

strength was in reaction to earthquake-related headlines and

probably exacerbated by thin market liquidity.

"The Nightmare of 2011 Tohoku earthquake lingers," he said,

referring to the earthquake and tsunami that devastated

northeastern Japan in March 2011.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 0.5% higher at

$118,042.85, while ether rose 1.2% to $3,808.81.

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