(Updated at 1200 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
Aug 21 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a more than
one-year low against the euro and sterling on Wednesday after
data showed employers added 818,000 fewer jobs in the year to
March 2024 than previously thought.
The data was released later than its scheduled 1000 EDT
time, leading to market confusion and some choppy trading.
"It suggests the labor market was not as strong as the
Fed believed at the time and has been communicating. But it's
less clear what it means for the outlook going forward," said
Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York.
"This is very consistent with the Fed starting to cut
rates. But it's harder to say what it means for the pace of
easing and other details," he added.
Traders will focus on comments by Fed Chair Jerome
Powell on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole economic
symposium for any new clues on his view of the labor market and
whether he references Wednesday's data.
Markets in particular are looking for clarity on the
likely size of a rate cut next month, and whether borrowing
costs are likely to be lowered at each subsequent Fed meeting.
Traders are pricing in a 33% probability of a 50 basis
point cut, little changed from before the jobs data, and a 67%
chance of a 25 basis point reduction, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch Tool.
"It got easier for the Fed to cut rates now and through
year-end but I don't think it makes a strong case for 50 basis
points," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive
in Toronto.
"We know that it was a year of solid economic growth, that
company profits were fine and that the economy grew at a good
clip for the year ending in March," Button said.
Fewer-than-expected job gains in July and an unexpected
increase in the unemployment rate led traders to price for
larger rate cuts on concern the United States is facing an
imminent recession.
Those concerns were rowed back by better data, including a
strong retail sales report for July and also
higher-than-expected shelter inflation for the month.
But markets remain highly sensitive to jobs data for any new
signs that the economy is worsening at a quicker pace.
The Fed is due to release the minutes from its July 30-31
meeting on Wednesday.
August employment and inflation data will be released after
Powell's speech but before the September meeting.
The dollar index was last down 0.16% at 101.22, the
lowest since Dec. 29. The euro rose 0.11% to $1.1142,
the highest since July 2023.
Strength in the euro may be stretched after the recent
rally, said UBS' Serebriakov.
"You haven't seen a big move in U.S. rates. I don't
think the European data is especially positive for the euro. So,
it seems still a bit of a technical move in FX," he said.
Sterling strengthened 0.36% to $1.3076, also the
highest since July 2023.
The dollar weakened 0.05% to 145.18 Japanese yen,
the lowest since August 7.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the
central bank's decision last month to raise interest rates when
he appears in parliament on Friday.
The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again by
year-end, according to more than half the economists in a
Reuters poll published on Wednesday, with those who had a view
on which month leaning towards a December increase.
Data next week is expected to show Japan's consumer
inflation rate picked up in July for a third consecutive month,
a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 0.31% to $59,498.