(Updates to U.S. afternoon)
* Oil slips as hostilities pause, but rate hike speculation
remains
* A 25-bps Fed rate hike forecast stands at roughly 40%, per
LSEG
* BOE, BOJ widely expected to leave rates unchanged this
week
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped but
remained near a one-month high on Tuesday, as traders weighed
the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this week,
even as falling oil prices eased some inflation concerns.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a
basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was 0.2%
lower at 101.35, not far from the 101.80 high touched in late
June. The euro was up 0.2% to $1.1393, while sterling
rose 0.1% to $1.3288. Against the Japanese yen,
the dollar was about flat on the day at 163.77 yen.
The dollar's resilience reflects a sharp repricing of Fed
expectations in recent months. Treasury yields have climbed
steadily since April as the U.S.-Iran conflict stoked concerns
about inflation and a hawkish debut from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
reinforced expectations of higher interest rates.
"Traders are taking steps to preserve liquidity and adding
to dollar longs ahead of tomorrow's decision," said Karl
Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
"On the face of it, the setup seems bullish for the dollar
either way: an outright hike would deliver an unequivocal boost,
while a hawkish hold would simply push expectations into
September," Schamotta said.
He warned, however, that speculative positioning in favor of
the dollar was stretched and that any hint of a more dovish
approach from policymakers could trigger a violent unwind.
The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with
some major brokerages warning that policymakers could raise
rates, given this month's surge in oil prices.
While oil prices have retreated after the U.S. paused
attacks on Iran and President Donald Trump hailed "good talks"
with Iran, yields remain near their multi-month highs.
Investors raised long dollar positions while increasing
short sterling bets in the week ended July 24, according to
Morgan Stanley options pricing data.
Markets are pricing a nearly 40% chance of a 25-basis-point
rate increase on Wednesday, up from about 20% a week ago,
according to LSEG data. Traders see almost a 95% probability of
a hike by September.
PACKED CENTRAL BANK WEEK
Both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are widely
expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings on
Thursday and Friday, respectively, and caution against rising
inflation.
Traders have been on intervention watch as the yen's
relentless decline drove it to a fresh 40-year low.
The BOJ is expected to keep the prospect of further rate
hikes alive to support the currency, though policymakers are
likely to remain vague on the timing and pace of any tightening.
"Traders are playing a high-stakes game of chicken with the
Ministry of Finance as the yen approaches yet another
psychological threshold," Schamotta said.
Tokyo stepped into the market in April and May as the yen
breached 160 per dollar, though the moves did little to alter
its broader decline.
In a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview on Tuesday, Japanese
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that Tokyo's stance
of responding to currency moves as needed was unchanged, adding
that she believed Washington shared that view.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2% to $63,493.