(Updates to U.S. afternoon trading, adds market details)
* Brent crude falls 8% as US halts Iran strikes
* Traders see a one-in-three chance of a 25 bps Fed hike
this week
* Traders remain on watch for yen intervention
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Medha Singh
NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - The dollar traded with a
softer tone against the euro and the yen on Monday as a pause in
U.S. bombing in Iran sent oil prices lower and bolstered risk
appetite ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings.
The euro rose as much as 0.4% before paring gains to trade
about flat on the day at $1.1371, while the U.S. dollar slipped
0.1% to 163.74 yen.
Oil prices sank, with Brent crude futures down $7.78, or
8%, at $89 a barrel after the U.S. military temporarily halted
its two-week-long strikes. Tehran said it would also halt
attacks if the U.S. maintained the pause, raising hopes for
renewed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
Still, the dollar was off the day's lows as the retreat in U.S.
yields, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, was
more modest in comparison to the drop in yields in other
markets, offering support to the U.S. currency.
"While USD is down on the day, it has been shifting higher
in the day as U.S. rates have rallied by less than those in the
rest of the world," Benjamin Ford, researcher at macro research
and strategy firm Macro Hive, said.
"Overall, that leaves you in a state where the market needs
to put front-end rates pricing up against risk premium," Ford
said.
The dollar's softer tone comes ahead of the Federal
Reserve's July 28 to 29 policy meeting.
With new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh providing few clues on the
policy outlook, traders see a roughly 33% chance of a
quarter-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday, down from 37% at the
end of last week but double the probability seen a week ago,
according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
"The FOMC statement might acknowledge the upside risks to
inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and Warsh
might as well in his press conference," Goldman Sachs Chief U.S.
Economist David Mericle said in a note.
Investors will also look to U.S. second-quarter GDP data and
the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE inflation, this
week for more clues on the health of the world's biggest
economy.
POLICY UNCERTAINTY
The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are widely expected to
keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings on Thursday and
Friday, respectively, while maintaining a cautious stance on
inflation.
With the yen pinned near last week's 40-year lows against the
dollar, the Bank of Japan is expected to leave the door open to
further hikes to arrest the currency's decline, although
policymakers will likely stay ambiguous on the pace and timing
of the moves. Verbal efforts to support the Japanese currency
have so far yielded muted results.
"The MoF's intervention window looks increasingly like it
has passed," Ford said.
"They need concrete evidence the USD top has been found,"
added Ford, who sees the risk of intervention beginning to climb
once it has become clearer that oil is also shifting lower.
The pound pared early gains to trade about 0.1% lower
at $1.3308 ahead of Thursday's BoE meeting. The central bank
faces renewed inflation risks from higher oil prices, just days
after new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and finance minister John
Healey took office.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was about flat on the
day at $64,812.