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Trio of central banks to announce rate decisions
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US non-farm payrolls and inflation data due
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Yen rises while pound loses ground
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US dollar index edges lower, bitcoin continues losing
streak
(Updates prices throughout, adds fresh analyst quote)
By Chibuike Oguh and Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar
edged lower against rivals including the yen and Swiss franc on
Monday in a week packed with central bank decisions and U.S.
data that could shed light on the Federal Reserve's near-term
policy outlook.
The dollar was last down 0.31% against the yen,
trading at 155.345 to the dollar.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates
on Friday, giving the yen an advantage over a dollar that could
lose support if expected U.S. rate cuts emerge early next year.
"Our economists shifted to expecting a December hike from
the BoJ in their base case," Goldman Sachs analysts led by
Alexandra Kanter wrote in an investor note.
"The guidance will be key for near-term direction, and a
recent report suggests that there may be less emphasis placed on
the bank's estimate of the neutral rate."
The BoJ is likely to maintain a pledge to keep raising interest
rates but emphasise that the pace of increases will depend on
how the economy reacts to each increase, sources told Reuters.
The Bank of England and European Central Bank are among
central banks making monetary policy decisions this week.
Markets have almost fully priced in a Bank of England cut as
inflation finally shows signs of easing while the ECB is
expected to leave rates unchanged.
Traders have begun speculating that a rate increase could be on
the cards for the ECB in 2026.
Sterling was down 0.12% at $1.33645, erasing earlier
gains, while the euro edged higher by 0.06% at $1.174775
in choppy trading, on track for a fourth straight session of
gains.
"In terms of the BoE, I think it's going to be very
interesting. I think it's going to be a finely balanced decision
to cut," said Joseph Capurso, currency strategist at
Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"The risk is that the inflation data that comes out this
week may take out some of the pricing for follow-up rate cuts."
UK wage growth data is due on Tuesday and consumer inflation
on Wednesday.
US DATA IN SPOTLIGHT
A catalogue of U.S. data delayed by the government shutdown is
set to be released, giving investors a long-awaited view of the
world's largest economy. The November jobs report is due on
Tuesday and inflation figures on Thursday.
A divided Fed cut rates last week, but Chair Jerome Powell
signalled that borrowing costs were unlikely to drop further in
the near term.
Current above-target inflation does not reflect underlying
supply and demand dynamics that are generating price increases
much closer to the central bank's 2% target, Federal Reserve
Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday, asserting that "prices
are now once again stable."
"The question really is, is the prevailing theme going to be
shifted dramatically from the delayed data we get this week,"
said Eugene Epstein, head of trading & structured products for
Moneycorp Americas.
"At the moment, the U.S. and the bulk of its G10 peers are
like two ships in the night with respect to 2026 central bank
rate policy. In the U.S., it's a story of how long the central
bank is going to wait until another cut while almost everywhere
else in developed markets, it's a story of how is the central
going to wait until they start hiking," Epstein said.
The dollar rose 0.16% to 0.79725 against the Swiss franc
. The dollar index, which measures the U.S.
currency against a basket of rivals including the yen and the
euro, was a shade lower by 0.09% at 98.318.
Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank are expected to
leave interest rates unchanged after their policy meetings this
week.
The Swedish crown strengthened by 0.48% to 9.3009 to
the dollar. Against the Norwegian crown, the dollar was up 0.34%
at 10.1582.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin continued its losing
streak and was on track for a fourth straight session of losses.
It was last down 2.56% to $86,205.11. Ether declined
4.72% to $2,936.89.