* Softer US PPI adds to evidence of cooling inflation,
weighs on dollar
* Traders expect Fed to hold line on rates in July
* Oil near one-month high on Strait of Hormuz blockade, US
strikes
(Updates to US afternoon)
By Laura Matthews
NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against major
currencies on Wednesday after softer-than-expected U.S. producer
prices reinforced signs of easing inflation, bolstering the view
that the Federal Reserve can remain patient on interest rates
even as investors weighed renewed strikes on Iran.
The Producer Price Index for final demand dropped 0.3% in June
after a downwardly revised 0.6% increase in May, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast the PPI unchanged after a previously reported 1.1%
advance in May.
The dollar slipped 0.2% against the yen to 161.90 yen.
The euro rose 0.51% to $1.1479, its highest since June
19. Sterling advanced 1.25% to $1.3554, its highest since
mid-May, supported by news that Andy Burnham, likely to be named
Labour party leader on Friday, will appoint a fiscally
conservative finance minister.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against
six major peers, fell 0.55% to 100.36, its lowest since
mid-June. It fell 0.4% in the previous session, its biggest
decline in nearly two weeks, after touching its highest level
since July 2.
"The dollar's recent strength has largely been tied to
expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy," said Steve
Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners.
"Not necessarily tighter policy itself, but rather a lower
probability of policy easing, as Fed funds futures are still
pointing to the possibility of one to two rate hikes by the end
of the year."
New York Fed President John Williams said inflation remains
"unquestionably too high" but may have peaked and should begin
easing, adding that monetary policy is well positioned to guide
it back to target.
"This PPI report adds to the evidence that inflation momentum is
cooling. Yesterday's CPI likely exaggerates the slowdown, but
broader data suggest inflation may be past its peak," said
Jeremy Schwartz, senior US economist
at Nomura. "The Fed will likely remain alert to inflation
risks, but recent data support our expectation that policy will
remain on hold."
EYES ON THE MIDDLE EAST
The latest escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran
kept oil prices near one-month highs, maintaining pressure on
the inflation outlook.
The U.S. military said it had begun a new wave of strikes on
Iran at 6 a.m. ET (1000 GMT) on Wednesday, after U.S. President
Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Washington had reimposed a
naval blockade of all Iranian ports.
The dollar has tended to benefit during flare-ups in the
conflict because of its safe-haven status and the relatively
limited impact of higher energy prices on the U.S. economy
compared with some peers.
Cooler U.S. inflation had earlier weighed on the dollar. U.S.
consumer inflation slowed more than expected to 3.5% on a
year-on-year basis in June, data showed on Tuesday.
The headline consumer price index fell 0.4% month-on-month,
its first decline since April 2020, as energy prices retreated.
"The shift has taken the air out of the recent USD rally, but
the technicals haven't necessarily turned over just yet," said
Michael Boutros, senior market analyst at StoneX in New York.
"The recent escalation in the Iranian conflict has caused a
resurgence in oil and continued elevated energy prices could
dampen the material progress made on the inflation front."
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the House Financial Services
Committee on Tuesday that the central bank has "no tolerance"
for persistently elevated inflation, and pledged to "do my job"
if challenged by Trump.
Traders are now pricing in about a 70% chance of a December rate
hike, down from around 80% yesterday, while a move later this
month is seen as highly unlikely, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, China's economic growth slowed sharply to 4.3% in
the second quarter, its weakest pace in more than three years.
The yuan briefly firmed to a one-month high as the
data reinforced expectations of further policy support.
"I see limited follow-through to the dollar's post-CPI
decline," said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at
Brown Brothers Harriman in London, adding that U.S. economic
outperformance, the Fed's commitment to fight inflation and
strong foreign demand for U.S. assets should keep the greenback
supported.