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Dollar down against won after US-Korea FX talks
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Fed officials cite need for more data
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Dollar retreats for second straight session
(Updates to US morning trading)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell on
Wednesday, adding to a drop in the prior session after
weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data as investors
await signs that global trade battles will continue to ease.
The dollar index began the week with a jump of more than 1% on
Monday and hit a one-month high as the United States and China
reached a deal to temporarily cut reciprocal tariffs and tamped
down concerns that a trade war between the world's two biggest
economies could lead to a global recession.
But the greenback fell on Tuesday after a gauge of consumer
prices was below economists' expectations as declining food
costs partially offset rising rents.
"What we've seen over the past, well, ever since the Fed
stopped lowering rates, has been a great sensitivity in the
markets, especially the currency markets, to inflation data,"
said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street in New York.
"We're moving from concern about the inflation rate in the
U.S., which continues to move in the right direction, and
perhaps reviving growth."
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a
basket of currencies, fell 0.25% to 100.73, with the euro
up 0.25% at $1.1212.
In light of the easing trade tensions, markets have dialed back
expectations for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve this
year, pricing in a 74% chance for the first cut of at least 25
basis points (bps) at the central bank's September meeting,
according to LSEG data, compared with the prior view for a cut
in July.
Several major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and
Barclays, have recently scaled back their U.S. recession
forecasts and their view of Fed policy easing.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said data showing
temperate consumer inflation in April does not necessarily
reflect the impact of rising U.S. import tariffs, and the Fed
still needs more data to determine the direction of prices and
the economy.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted a similar sentiment,
saying the recent inflation data indicated good progress towards
the central bank's 2% goal, but the outlook is now uncertain due
to the possibility that new import taxes will drive prices
higher.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.89% to
146.16 while sterling eased 0.1% to $1.3291.
Investors were also digesting news South Korea's Deputy Finance
Minister Choi Ji-young met with Robert Kaproth of the U.S.
Treasury on May 5 to discuss forex markets, which helped send
the dollar to its lowest in a week against Korea's won.
The won strengthened 1.53% against the dollar to
1,394.64.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients that while
details of the meeting are scarce and talks may be part of an
ongoing dialogue, "it puts renewed focus on the scope for
undervalued trade surplus currencies to appreciate in a weaker
dollar environment."
Markets will closely watch Thursday's U.S. data on the labor
market, another inflation gauge and a reading of consumer
health, as well as comments from Fed Chair Powell.