(Updated in New York morning time)
* Fed expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%
* Markets are watching whether Fed drops its easing bias
* Warsh may show break from Powell's communication approach
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on
Wednesday ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's
two-day policy meeting, the first to be chaired by Kevin Warsh,
with markets closely watching for any signs of a hawkish shift
from policymakers.
The Fed is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady
in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, though it may drop its easing
bias from the policy statement. The U.S. central bank will also
issue its Summary of Economic Projections and the closely
watched "dot plot," offering markets a window into how Federal
Open Market Committee members view the direction of monetary
policy.
All eyes will be on the post-meeting press conference, where
any signals Warsh offers on the Fed's outlook will be critical
as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank's 2%
annual target.
Warsh, appointed by President Donald Trump, has suggested he
will adopt a different governing approach from his predecessor
Jerome Powell, with one notable distinction being his reluctance
to commit to holding press conferences after every policy
meeting, a practice Powell had instituted, though the Fed
confirmed there will be one on Wednesday.
"We're at a point now where we've probably reached maximum
interaction between the Fed and the markets," said Eric Theoret,
a foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank.
Powell remains a voting member of the FOMC as a governor.
With inflation likely to dominate the press conference, traders
will also be listening for any comments from Warsh on
alternative inflation gauges he is known to favor, including the
Dallas Fed's trimmed mean measure, which points to softer price
pressures than headline Personal Consumption Expenditures, or
PCE.
"If we were to get maybe just a bit more of an emphasis on
that (on Wednesday), that would be very interesting because that
would definitely give Warsh cover to start to manage
expectations for lower rates," Theoret said.
An interim agreement to end the Iran war has pushed oil prices
lower and should help ease some inflationary pressure in the
months ahead, though the pass-through to consumer energy prices
may take time. Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing
in 60% odds of a rate hike this year.
The dollar showed little reaction to data on Wednesday showing
that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,
rose 0.11% to 99.66, with the euro down 0.13% at $1.1592.
BOE AND BOJ
The Bank of England meets on Thursday and, as with the Fed,
no change in policy is expected, leaving the focus on the tone
of policymakers' commentary.
That commentary could be shaped in part by Wednesday's UK
inflation data, which showed prices unexpectedly held at 2.8% in
May, unchanged from the 13-month low reached in April. Markets
currently see one BoE rate hike by year-end.
Sterling was last down 0.19% at $1.34.
The yen firmed 0.12% to 160.22 per dollar, still
keeping traders on alert for potential intervention by Japanese
authorities to support the persistently weak currency.
The BOJ on Tuesday raised rates to a 31-year high in a landmark
step in its policy normalization, signaling readiness to tighten
further as it focuses on taming price pressures from the
war-induced energy shock. However, policymakers offered few
clues on the timing of the next move.
Sweden's crown weakened after the Riksbank held its policy rate
unchanged. The central bank said the Iran war had intensified
inflationary pressures, raising the likelihood of a future rate
hike, while also noting that underlying inflation remained
subdued and economic activity was somewhat below normal.
The Swedish crown was last down 0.19% versus the
dollar at 9.39.