(Updates at 0550 GMT)
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar was firm on
Thursday after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data squashed
lingering expectations of the Fed starting its rate-cutting
cycle in June, while the yen languished at the levels last seen
in the middle of 1990.
Investor focus will now be on U.S. producer price data and
the European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day.
The yen's slide to a 34-year low of 153.24 per U.S. dollar
on Wednesday brought intervention fears back as authorities in
Tokyo reiterated that they would not rule out any steps to deal
with excessive swings.
Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022
as the yen slid toward what was then a 32-year low of 152 to the
dollar.
On Thursday, the yen strengthened 0.17% to 152.93
per dollar. That was just below the 153.24 level touched on
Wednesday after data showed the U.S. consumer price index rose
0.4% on a monthly basis in March, versus the 0.3% increase
expected by economists polled by Reuters.
The yen is down nearly 8% against the dollar this year, with
the currency rooted near 151 per dollar levels since the Bank of
Japan last month ended eight years of negative interest rates.
Low Japanese rates have made the yen the funding currency of
choice for carry trades for years, in which traders typically
borrow a low-yielding currency to then sell and invest the
proceeds in assets denominated in a higher-yielding one.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com,
expects Tokyo authorities to keep talking tough and intervene if
things look disorderly.
"The very interesting element is how the Bank of Japan
eventually handles this ... We might see greater hawkishness
from here and that would be the catalyst for a more sustained
turnaround," Rodda said.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday the
central bank would not directly respond to currency moves in
setting monetary policy, brushing aside market speculation that
the yen's sharp falls could force it to raise interest rates.
FED WAGERS WILT
Following the inflation data, traders drastically dialled
back their bets on interest rate cuts this year as well as when
the Federal Reserve will start its easing cycle.
Adding to those doubts, minutes from the Fed's March
meeting, released on Wednesday, show policymakers were already
disappointed by recent inflation readings before the latest
report.
Markets are now pricing in an 18% chance of the Fed cutting
rates in June, compared with 50% before the CPI data, according
to CME FedWatch tool, with September turning out to be the next
starting point for rate cuts.
Traders are also pricing in 43 basis points of cuts this
year much lower than the 75 basis points of easing projected by
the U.S. central bank. At the start of the year, traders had
priced in over 150 bps of cuts in 2024.
"Two rate cuts in 2024 now look more likely, as the Fed will
want more confidence that inflation is trending sustainably
lower toward their target," said Nicholas Chia, Asia macro
strategist at Standard Chartered.
"While the Fed is not data-point dependent, the totality of
the data clearly suggests there is no need to rush into cuts."
The hot inflation report led to U.S. Treasury spiking higher
and taking the dollar index, which measures the greenback
against six rivals, more than 1% higher on Wednesday to near a
five-month peak of 105.30. The index was last at 105.15 on
Thursday.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes eased 2.4
basis points to 4.536% on Thursday, hovering near the five-month
peak of 4.568% it touched on Wednesday.
The dollar's surge sent China's yuan to a five-month low
despite the central bank's efforts to steer it higher.
The euro last bought $1.07465, having dropped 1%
on Wednesday ahead of the European Central Bank's policy
decision. The ECB is expected to stand pat on rates but is
likely to signal that a rate cut could come as soon as June.
Sterling was last at $1.2548, up 0.07% on the day.
The Australian dollar was 0.14% higher at $0.6522,
while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.17% to $0.59835.