* Dollar index at highest since November
* Energy-sensitive currencies such as euro under pressure
* US consumer spending, core PCE inflation firmer before
Iran war
* Traders bet on Fed rate cut by September
* Yen in intervention territory
(Updates to U.S. afternoon)
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose
against a basket of major currencies Friday, on track for a
second straight weekly gain, as the war in the Middle East drove
investors toward safe-haven assets and weighed on
energy-sensitive currencies such as the euro.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to be hitting
Iran "very hard over the next week", shortly after issuing a
partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil,
hoping to ease prices fuelled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
A sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would severely hurt
the economies of Japan and the euro area, which are heavily
reliant on crude imports, while the United States would be
relatively insulated, having been a net crude exporter for
almost a decade.
"Global investors are unwinding cross-border exposures,
pushing money into safe havens, and punishing currencies issued
by net energy importers," said Karl Schamotta, chief market
strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
The euro was 0.4% lower against the dollar at
$1.1466. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's
strength against a basket of currencies, was up 0.4% at 100.10.
The index is up 1.1% for the week, its second consecutive weekly
gain.
Schamotta, however, warned that FX markets face two-way
risks.
"As the war drags on, both Tehran and Washington have strong
motivations for returning to the negotiating table and there are
good reasons to suspect they could strike a face-saving bargain
as soon as this weekend," said Schamotta.
INFLATION WATCH
Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending increased
slightly more than expected in January, which together with
continued strength in underlying inflation and the dragging war
in the Middle East bolstered economists' views that the Federal
Reserve would not resume cutting interest rates for some time.
"The latest personal consumption expenditures inflation data
tells us that the inflation picture wasn't looking good even
before the Middle East crisis," Sonu Varghese, global macro
strategist at Carson Group, said in a note.
"An already large headache for the Federal Reserve is going
to turn into an even larger one, and it's likely the Fed will
not cut rates in 2026 and may even start talking about rate
hikes later this year," Varghese said.
In the two weeks since the Iran conflict set off a surge in
oil prices, traders had pushed bets on a first Fed rate cut to
as late as December. On Friday, they were betting the Fed will
probably next cut interest rates in September.
EURO PAIN
Investors await the European Central Bank policy meeting
next Thursday, while traders bet that surging oil prices could
push the central bank to hike rates this year.
Still, economists remain wary of monetary tightening in
economies where dependence on fuel imports means surging energy
costs are likely to weigh on growth.
"It has become very clear that shipping through the Strait
of Hormuz could be affected for a while," Jane Foley, head of FX
strategy at Rabobank, said in a note.
"We have therefore reduced our EUR/USD forecasts on a 1- and
3-month view to 1.14 and 1.15 respectively from 1.16," she said.
YEN IN INTERVENTION TERRITORY
The yen slid up to 159.69 per dollar, the weakest
since July 2024, before paring losses to trade up 0.1% on the
day at 159.20 per dollar.
Japan is ready to take the necessary steps against yen moves
that impact people's lives, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama
said on Friday, adding that she was in close contact with U.S.
authorities on foreign exchange issues.
"Policymakers are likely to take a dim view of the effect
that exchange rate weakness will have on already-soaring import
bills," Schamotta said, noting that pressure to intervene to
prop up the battered yen could increase in coming days and
weeks.
Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin rose 4.5% to $73,374,
a nine-day high.