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FOREX-Dollar holds near highs as investors parse China's stimulus plans; euro dips
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FOREX-Dollar holds near highs as investors parse China's stimulus plans; euro dips
Oct 17, 2024 2:32 PM

(Updates at 0757 GMT)

By Vidya Ranganathan and Medha Singh

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered

near recent highs on Monday as investors digested China's

somewhat disappointing weekend stimulus announcements, while the

euro extended its fall ahead of a central bank meeting this

week.

The euro was down 0.1% at $1.092850, falling for

an 11th time in 12 sessions as investors priced in a widely

expected 25 basis point interest rate cut from the European

Central Bank at its Oct. 17 meeting, with data pointing to

deteriorating euro zone activity.

"Given the lagged effects with which policy operates it is

hard to argue for more 'wait and see', clearly policy is too

restrictive," said Lloyds Bank strategist Sam Hill in a note.

"The issue for (ECB) President Lagarde will be how to

communicate the shift without unsettling the hawks still

obsessing with the rear-view mirror."

Currency moves were sluggish as Japanese markets were shut

for Sports Day, while U.S. Treasuries were also unlikely to

provide much of a lead since bond markets were closed for

Columbus Day.

The pound trod water near one-month lows at

$1.30595.

The dollar index was just above 103 and closing in on

last week's peak, its highest since mid-August, on the back of

traders reducing bets on further jumbo rate cuts by the Federal

Reserve at its remaining policy meetings this year.

Currency moves in major markets were tepid last week. The

yen and euro both fell around 0.3% each, sterling shed 0.4% and

the dollar index climbed 0.4%.

Last week's U.S. data showing slightly hotter-than-expected

consumer inflation, but higher weekly jobless claims have left

intact expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points

in November and December.

Traders next have on their radar Thursday's retail sales and

jobless claims data in the U.S., in addition to the ECB's policy

review.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller - a supporter of a larger

rate cut because he is worried the pace of price increases is

undershooting the Fed's target - speaks later on Monday.

CHINA STIMULUS DISAPPOINTS

Trading in Asia was dominated by Beijing's fiscal stimulus

briefing. China's yuan fell 0.3% against the dollar,

while the Aussie, whose fortunes are closely tied to

China, was down 0.3% at $0.67320.

China said on Saturday it will "significantly increase"

government debt issuance to offer subsidies to people with low

incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks'

capital as it pushes to revive sputtering economic growth.

Without providing details on the size of the fiscal stimulus

being prepared, Finance Minister Lan Foan told a press

conference there will be more "counter-cyclical measures" this

year.

"More time may be needed for more thought-out and targeted

measures," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in

Singapore.

"But those measures also need to come fast as markets are

eagerly waiting for them. Over expectations vs under-delivery

would result in disappointment."

The onshore yuan has fallen nearly 1% against the

dollar since Sept. 24, when the People's Bank of China kicked

off China's most aggressive stimulus measures since the

pandemic.

The New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% at $0.60895,

following last week's 0.8% drop after the central bank slashed

rates by a half point and hinted at further cuts to come.

In digital currencies, bitcoin firmed 1.8% to a

ten-day high of $64,104, while ether was last up 3.1%

after hitting a two-week high of $2,546.35.

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