* Pause in hostilities sends oil prices lower, but Fed rate
hike speculation remains
* A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike forecast stands at roughly
40%, per LSEG
* BOE and BOJ widely expected to leave rates unchanged this
week
(Updates prices to early European trade)
By Medha Singh and Satoshi Sugiyama
July 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar steadied near a
four-week high on Tuesday as traders assessed the possibility of
a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week, even as falling
oil prices offered some relief on the inflation front.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,
was about flat at 101.50 after touching its highest since July
1. The euro ticked up 0.05% to $1.1370. Against the
Japanese yen, the dollar traded at 163.745, while
sterling gained 0.1% to $1.330.
The dollar's resilience reflects a sharp repricing of Fed
expectations in recent months. Treasury yields have climbed
steadily since April as the U.S.-Iran conflict stoked concerns
about inflation and a hawkish debut from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
reinforced expectations of higher interest rates.
While oil prices have retreated after the U.S. paused
attacks on Iran over the weekend, yields remain near their
multi-month highs.
"The move in U.S. yields has been quite powerful in
explaining the dollar's moves," said Dominic Bunning, head of
G10 FX strategy at Nomura in London.
He said there was a risk that investors have become too
convinced of a near-term rate hike, meaning any dovish outcome
could force traders to unwind long-dollar positions.
Net long dollar positions were at their highest since 2015
in the latest week, weekly U.S. regulator data
showed.
The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday,
with a growing number of major brokerages warning that
policymakers could raise rates, given this month's surge in oil
prices.
Markets are pricing a nearly 40% chance of a 25-basis-point
rate increase on Wednesday, up from about 20% a week ago,
according to LSEG data. Traders see almost a 95% probability of
a hike by September.
Investors will also look to U.S. second-quarter GDP data and
the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE inflation, this
week.
In other major currencies, the Australian dollar
weakened 0.3% versus the greenback to $0.697, as Australia's
central bank chief Michele Bullock said underlying inflation
remained too high and a further slowdown in domestic demand may
be required to tame prices. New Zealand's kiwi traded at
$0.5772.
PACKED CENTRAL BANK WEEK
The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are widely expected to
keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings on Thursday and
Friday, respectively, while maintaining a cautious stance on
inflation.
Traders have been on intervention watch for weeks as the
yen's unabated slide pushed it to fresh 40-year lows against the
dollar at 163.99 last week.
The BOJ is expected to keep the door open to further rate
hikes to support the currency, though policymakers are likely to
remain vague on the timing and pace of any tightening.
"Can they almost coordinate a little bit whereby the BOJ can
deliver a slightly more hawkish message and the (Ministry of
Finance) comes in, then you get more bang for your buck,
effectively? We saw it in July 2024 .. that was almost the sweet
spot for Japan intervention," Bunning said.
"It can be potentially more futile and that's the risk they
face."
Tokyo stepped into the market in April and May as the yen
breached 160 per dollar, though the moves did little to alter
its broader decline.
In a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview on Tuesday, Japanese
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that Tokyo's stance
of responding to currency moves as needed was unchanged, adding
that she believed Washington shared that view.
The yen offered little reaction to news of an earthquake
with a preliminary magnitude of 7.1 striking Japan's southern
Kumamoto prefecture on Tuesday.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.3% to $63,414.16.
Ether declined 3.4% to $1,879.71, the biggest percentage
drop in a month.
(Reporting by Medha Singh and Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Shri
Navaratnam, Stephen Coates, Amanda Cooper and Saumyadeb
Chakrabarty)