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FOREX-Dollar jittery as market eyes CPI data; Aussie, kiwi rise on China
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FOREX-Dollar jittery as market eyes CPI data; Aussie, kiwi rise on China
Dec 9, 2024 5:25 AM

*

Dollar broadly steady, eyes on Wednesday's US CPI data

*

China changes monetary stance to 'appropriately loose'

from

'prudent'

*

ECB, BoC and SNB expected to cut rates this week

(Updates prices at 1215 GMT)

By Vidya Ranganathan and Greta Rosen Fondahn

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - The euro held steady

against the dollar in skittish trading on Monday as investors

awaited U.S. inflation data later this week, while the

Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied after China pledged

an "appropriately loose" monetary policy next year.

While markets have priced in a quarter-point rate cut by the

U.S. Federal Reserve next week as a near certainty, investors

are waiting for U.S. consumer price data on Wednesday.

"The move higher in unemployment that we saw in November,

that really just cements the case for a 25-basis point cut next

Wednesday," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at

Pepperstone.

"Unless we get a really hot inflation number, but that's

certainly not the base case."

"The Fed are much more focused at this moment in time on the

labour market as opposed to developments with regards to

inflation," he added.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth surged in

November, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% pointed to

an easing labour market that should allow the Fed to cut

interest rates again this month.

The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.0566, having

fallen earlier by as much as 0.3%, while the greenback gained

0.34% against the yen to 150.515. The dollar index

was flat at 105.96.

Brown expected the upcoming U.S. inflation data, European

Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday and Fed rate decision

next week to lead to subdued trading in currencies for the time

being, "given the amount of event risk that we've got on the

horizon".

Mizuho Bank strategist Vishnu Varathan also pointed to a

host of geopolitical developments, such as the weekend fall of

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, alongside macro- and

Trump-related trades as providing markets further impetus to

stay long dollars.

"There's no incentive to short the dollar against any

particular currency," he said.

The Australian dollar gained 0.84% on the

greenback, and the kiwi rose 0.5%, after China

announced a shift in monetary policy to spur growth.

The two currencies often serve as a proxy for the Chinese

yuan, which strengthened in the offshore market to

leave the dollar down 0.13% at 7.275.

China will adopt an "appropriately loose" monetary policy

next year as part of steps to support economic growth, and will

implement a more proactive fiscal policy and step up

"unconventional" counter-cyclical adjustments, state media

reported on Monday, citing a Politburo meeting.

The central bank has outlined five policy stances - "loose",

"appropriately loose", "prudent", "appropriately tight" and

"tight" - with flexibility on either side of each.

China adopted an "appropriately loose" monetary policy after

the 2008 global financial crisis, before switching to "prudent"

in late 2010.

The dollar rose 0.53% versus South Korea's won. Over

the weekend, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol survived an

impeachment vote in parliament prompted by his short-lived

attempt to impose martial law last week.

Last week's headliner, bitcoin, which hit six-figures

for the first time at a record $103,649, was last at $98,282.

CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS

The main events investors are watching this week are the ECB

policy meeting on Thursday, where a quarter point cut is baked

in, and China's closed-door Central Economic Work Conference.

The Bank of Canada (BoC), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meet this week, with deep rate

cuts expected from the first two that could turn yield

differentials even more against their currencies.

The Canadian dollar traded near a 4-1/2-year low on

Monday as markets anticipate another outsized interest-rate cut.

The loonie pared some earlier losses and the dollar was last

down 0.21% against the currency.

The RBA is the only central bank among its peers that has

not yet begun cutting rates, and it isn't expected to do so in

December either, although it might soften its tone on growth

targets.

This week will be an interesting one for the Swiss franc

, given the intense debate about how deep the SNB's fourth

rate cut of the cycle will be. Markets give a higher probability

for a larger 50-basis point cut, and are even priming for

negative interest rates by next year.

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