(Updates prices throughout, adds analyst quote and brent crude
settlement)
* Markets await central bank indications on the rate
outlook
* Euro rises against the dollar
* Australian dollar rises after central bank rate hike
* Dollar index falls for second straight session
By Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was lower
against peer currencies for the second straight session on
Tuesday, reflecting market positioning ahead of major central
bank interest rate decisions this week.
The dollar had reached a 10-month high as the Middle East
conflict and rising oil prices prompted investors to seek safety
in U.S. assets.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on
Wednesday, with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England
and the Bank of Japan following a day later. They are all
expected to keep rates unchanged although traders will be
looking out for commentary about inflation and economic outlook
amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Expectations for Federal Reserve easing have also been
scaled back, with markets now assigning about 25 basis points of
cuts this year. Traders are pricing in almost two European
Central Bank rate hikes in 2026, a sharp shift from the roughly
50% chance of a cut seen before the conflict began.
The dollar was down 0.40% to 0.7846 against the Swiss franc
, on track for the second straight day of declines.
The dollar index had hit 100.54 on Friday, its
highest level since May 2025. It has eased from that peak in the
last two sessions, and was last down 0.31% to 99.55.
"I think this is mostly market positioning but I am
beginning to detect a subtle change in sentiment although we
wouldn't know for sure until we get to the other side of the
Federal Reserve meeting," said Marc Chandler, chief market
strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. "It seems to me that
since the war began, the dollar was bought on dips and now I
think the dollar is being sold on rallies."
Brent crude futures remained above $100 a barrel on
worries about supply, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut.
They have risen more than 40% since February and settled up 3.2%
to $103.42 per barrel.
Iran renewed attacks on the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday,
causing oil loading at the port of Fujairah to be at least
partly halted after the third attack in four days ignited a fire
at the export terminal. Fujairah is located on the Gulf of Oman,
just outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are likely to be
hawkish and will attempt to forcefully signal to financial
markets to expect a prolonged pause in rate cuts given rising
oil prices and the prospect of higher inflation, Macquarie Group
analysts led by Thierry Wizman said in an investor note.
"They can do this mildly by letting the median 'dot' point
to that single cut in 2026 (confirming the OIS market's
dialed-back projections for rate cuts), or they can do it more
aggressively, by changing the statement to reflect a 'neutral'
policy bias, thus giving itself several more months to consider
a rate cut (or hike) without the pressure of the claim that it
is misleading markets in the event that oil prices stay high and
inflation rises uncomfortably," the analysts said.
The euro was up 0.31% against the dollar at $1.15403 after
dropping to as low as $1.1409 in the prior session, for its
lowest level since August 2025.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RISES AFTER SECOND RATE HIKE
Australia's central bank raised rates for a second straight
month to a 10-month high, undoing two of the three cuts it made
last year and cautioning that risks to inflation have tilted
further to the upside. It was the central bank's most tightly
contested vote since it began disclosing tallies last year, with
the board split 5-4 in favor of the hike.
The Australian dollar rose 0.46% to 0.71040 against the
dollar.
The yen has veered toward the 2024 forex intervention zone
of 161 amid rising oil prices and the Middle East conflict.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday and
reiterated on Tuesday that the government was prepared to take
decisive steps against volatility in foreign exchange and other
financial markets.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation
was accelerating toward the bank's 2% target, stressing that
price rises must be matched by solid wage gains.
The Japanese yen was last up 0.01% against the
greenback to 159 per dollar.