* US PPI undershoots, adds to signs of easing inflation
* Markets price out July Fed interest rate hike
* Oil prices inch higher, war-induced inflation lingers
By Jiaxing Li
HONG KONG, July 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hovered near
a one-month low on Thursday, as soft inflation data reinforced
bets that the Federal Reserve can stay patient on interest rate
hikes, while escalation in Middle East hostilities added upside
risk to the inflation outlook.
The greenback slipped against the Japanese yen for the third
trading session, by 0.1% to 162.075 yen. The euro
was 0.1% higher at $1.1472, its strongest in a month.
Sterling held near a two-month high at $1.354 on
market expectations that Britain's incoming prime minister will
pick a fiscally conservative finance minister.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars
were both down about 0.1%, at $0.6995 and $0.5842 respectively.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency
against six peers, was little changed at 100.47, hovering near
its lowest since June 18. It has fallen 0.8% over the previous
two sessions and is on track for a weekly decline.
U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in June, in their
biggest decline in 14 months, adding to evidence that inflation
was easing before the latest flare-up in the Middle East.
The data, together with surprisingly soft consumer inflation
and a slowdown in job growth in June, effectively rule out a Fed
interest rate increase this month.
Chances for a hike in July were slashed to 11%, versus a 45%
implied probability at the start of the week. Markets still see
even odds of at least a 25 basis-point increase in September,
according to Fed funds futures prices via CME Group.
"The recent dollar weakness appears to be a correction from
previous highs. Markets had aggressively priced in a July rate
hike, which now looks somewhat overblown given that inflation is
cooling fast," said Bosco Wu, investment strategist at Bank of
East Asia.
However, the tightening trajectory is intact as one month of
cooling data is unlikely to signal sustained inflation slowdown,
and the flare-up in the Middle East should limit downside for
the greenback, Wu said.
The escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran kept
oil prices near one-month highs, maintaining pressure on the
inflation outlook.
The U.S. struck Iran's coastal defences and missile sites on
Wednesday after re-imposing a naval blockade of its ports, while
Iran threatened to shut off more regional energy exports, saying
it was engaged in an "existential war" with America.
Oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday,
with Brent crude futures last trading near a one-month high at
$85.28 a barrel.