* Dollar index hits highest since May 2025
* Yen recovers on intervention threats
* Korean won tumbles, AUD, NZD break down to multi-month
lows
(Updates with early European trading)
By Tom Westbrook and Alun John
SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - The dollar headed
for its biggest monthly gain since July on Tuesday and stands
out as the strongest so-called safe asset, as war in the Middle
East has set oil prices surging, nearly everything else sinking
and raised the risk of global recession.
Developed market currencies were broadly steady on the day,
with the Japanese yen unchanged at 159.62 per dollar, the
euro flat at $1.1472 and the pound 0.14% higher at
$1.3202.
But still all three were set for March falls of more than
2%. For the euro and pound, that is the largest drop since July,
and since October for the yen.
The dollar has been supported by the U.S. status as an
energy exporter and by investors' flight to cash over the past
month of conflict.
The latest news from the war, including a Wall Street
Journal report that U.S. President Donald Trump was willing to
end attacks on Iran without forcing open the Strait of Hormuz,
did little for currencies on Tuesday, but did underscore their
monthly moves.
"The lack of a clear plan to reopen the Strait continues to
pose upside risks to global energy prices," said Lee Hardman,
senior currency analyst at MUFG.
"The potential for a bigger hit to growth outside of the
U.S. continues to encourage a stronger U.S. dollar," he said.
Asian currencies have suffered some of the largest losses
and, on Tuesday, the dollar pushed 1% higher against South
Korea's won, to 1,534 won, levels touched only in the
wake of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Asian
financial crisis in 1997 and 1998.
The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six main
peers, touched its highest since last May at 100.64 and, last
sitting at 100.47, is up 2.8% through March.
WATCHING THE YEN
Also top of mind for currency markets were renewed threats
of intervention from Tokyo, which served to spare extra selling
pressure on the yen, currently at its weakest since July
2024.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday repeated
Tokyo's readiness to respond "on all fronts" against volatile
moves, saying they were seeing "speculative moves heightening in
the currency market," as well as in the oil futures market.
The dollar has stood tall since the war began over other
perceived safe assets, not just the yen.
A looming inflation spike has hurt bonds. A positioning
clearout has sunk gold, while the energy shock hurts Japan's
terms of trade and Swiss authorities have indicated they would
intervene to stem any steep gains for the franc.
The dollar is up nearly 4% for the month on the franc
, at 0.80 francs, and has broken resistance levels for the
Aussie and kiwi in recent sessions.
The Aussie has fallen for eight sessions and hit a
two-month low of $0.6834, down 3.7% for March and under major
support at $0.6897, while the kiwi, down six straight
sessions, is on the verge of breaking below 57 cents.
The main risk to the dollar might come from labour data due
out in the liquidity vacuum of Good Friday, or, warned
strategists at Union Bancaire Privee, a breakdown in the
relationship that usually sees the dollar higher if stocks fall.
"FX - equity correlations have been quite stable since the
outbreak of the conflict, though this could change if markets
move to price in a more prolonged conflict - with still
uncertain outcomes," they said.
March inflation data is due later in the session in Europe
and German data from Monday suggests it is likely to rip back
above the European Central Bank's 2% target.