(Updates to US afternoon)
* Dollar index at highest since November
* Energy-sensitive currencies such as euro under pressure
* US consumer spending, core PCE inflation firmer before
Iran war
* Traders bet on Fed rate cut by September
* Yen in intervention territory
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose
across the board on Friday, set for a second straight weekly
gain, as the war in the Middle East drove investors toward
safe-haven assets and weighed on energy-sensitive currencies
such as the euro.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to be hitting
Iran "very hard over the next week", shortly after issuing a
partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil,
hoping to ease prices fuelled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
A sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would severely hurt the
economies of Japan and the euro zone, which are heavily reliant
on crude imports, while the United States would be relatively
insulated, having been a net crude exporter for almost a decade.
"Global investors are unwinding cross-border exposures,
pushing money into safe havens, and punishing currencies issued
by net energy importers," said Karl Schamotta, chief market
strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
The euro was 0.6% lower against the dollar at
$1.14395. The dollar index, which measures the
greenback's strength against a basket of currencies, was up 0.7%
at 100.35. The index is up 1.5% for the week.
Schamotta, however, warned that FX markets face two-way
risks.
"As the war drags on, both Tehran and Washington have strong
motivations for returning to the negotiating table and there are
good reasons to suspect they could strike a face-saving bargain
as soon as this weekend," said Schamotta.
INFLATION WATCH
Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending increased slightly
more than expected in January, which together with continued
strength in underlying inflation and the dragging war in the
Middle East, bolstered economists' views that the Federal
Reserve would not resume cutting interest rates for some time.
"The latest personal consumption expenditures inflation data
tells us that the inflation picture wasn't looking good even
before the Middle East crisis," Sonu Varghese, global macro
strategist at Carson Group, said in a note.
"An already large headache for the Federal Reserve is going
to turn into an even larger one, and it's likely the Fed will
not cut rates in 2026 and may even start talking about rate
hikes later this year," Varghese said.
EURO PAIN
Investors await the European Central Bank policy meeting next
Thursday, while traders bet that surging oil prices could push
the central bank to hike rates this year.
Still, economists remain wary of monetary tightening in
economies where dependence on fuel imports means surging energy
costs are likely to weigh on growth.
"It has become very clear that shipping through the Strait
of Hormuz could be affected for a while," Jane Foley, head of FX
strategy at Rabobank, said in a note.
"We have therefore reduced our EUR/USD forecasts on a 1- and
3-month view to 1.14 and 1.15 respectively from 1.16," she said.
YEN IN INTERVENTION TERRITORY
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose to its strongest
level since July 2024 and was last trading up 0.2% at 159.67
yen.
Japan is ready to take the necessary steps against yen
moves that impact people's lives, Finance Minister Satsuki
Katayama said on Friday, adding that she was in close contact
with U.S. authorities on foreign exchange issues.
"Policymakers are likely to take a dim view of the effect
that exchange rate weakness will have on already-soaring import
bills," Schamotta said, noting that pressure to intervene to
prop up the battered yen could increase in coming days and
weeks.
Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin was 1.2% higher at
$71,021, after rising to a nine-day high earlier in the session.