(Updates throughout with comment, prices at 0825 GMT)
By Kevin Buckland and Amanda Cooper
TOKYO/LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to a
one-month trough versus the yen and a one-week low on the euro
on Friday, as a mixed bag of U.S. job market indicators stirred
caution ahead of a crucial monthly payrolls report later in the
day.
A report on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing
new applications for jobless benefits declined last week as
layoffs remained low. That helped allay fears that the labour
market was deteriorating rapidly, after figures released the
previous day showed private jobs growth slumped to a 3-1/2-year
low in August.
Traders currently see 41% odds for a super-sized 50-basis
point (bp) Fed interest rate cut on Sept. 18, versus a 59%
probability of a quarter-point reduction, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch Tool. A day earlier, wagers on the larger cut
stood at 44%, but a week ago they were 30%.
The mixed data left traders guessing before Friday's
payrolls print, with economists surveyed by Reuters predicting
an increase of 160,000 jobs in August, up from a 114,000 rise in
July.
Traders have sold the dollar against other currencies fairly
consistently over the last couple of months, as concern has
risen that a slowing U.S. economy will require chunky rate cuts.
"If you look at where positioning is, people are probably
banking on too much of a dovish move from the Fed," IG chief
market strategist Chris Beauchamp said.
"Manufacturing ISM and ADP were all dire earlier in the
week and it's leading people to expect a negative (number),
which, if it doesn't come in as a shocker, as some people are
hoping for, some of those 50-bp bets could get dialled back and
people start buying back the dollar, which, conversely, might
weigh on other markets," he said.
What the Fed makes of the payrolls numbers will be almost
immediately obvious, with both Governor Christopher Waller and
New York Fed President John Williams separately taking to the
podium in the final Fedspeak before the blackout period begins
ahead of this month's policy gathering.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled the central bank's focus
was shifting from fighting inflation to preventing deterioration
in the jobs market when he strongly endorsed an imminent start
to the monetary easing cycle at the annual economic conference
in Jackson Hole last month.
"Recent labor data has fanned fears of labor market
softening (and) the August payroll report could be a 'make or
break' moment," TD Securities analysts including head of global
strategy Rich Kelly wrote in a report.
However, TD expects 205,000 jobs were added in August,
setting up a quarter-point cut this month, and triggering a
dollar rebound.
"There is simply lots of bad news priced into the USD,
increasing the risks that a string of good news will kick-start
a sizeable correction."
The dollar fell almost 1% against the yen at one point in
European trading, in line with a drop in U.S. Treasury yields.
It retraced some of that move to show a 0.5% decline on the day,
trading at 142.69 yen, its weakest since Aug. 5.
The euro held its ground at $1.11145, just below
Thursday's high of $1.11195, the most since Aug. 29, while
sterling was little changed at $1.3174, nudging at
one-week highs.
The dollar index, which gauges the currency against
the yen, euro, sterling and three other major peers, slipped
0.1% to 100.94, a one-week low. For the week, it has dropped
close to 0.8%.
The Swiss franc, which like the yen is a
traditional haven currency, strengthened about 0.28% to 0.8417
per dollar.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin surrendered overnight
gains and fell 0.6% to $55,745, heading for a weekly loss of
4.5%.