* Dollar pulls back slightly, still near 10-month high
* Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ among central banks to meet this
week
* Focus on inflation, growth outlook as Middle East war
drags on
* RBA expected to hike rates
(Updates prices throughout, adds analyst comment and oil
settlement)
By Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - The dollar pulled back
from 10-month highs on Monday in a week packed with key central
bank meetings even as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict
continued to weigh on markets.
The dollar has benefited from a flight to safety since the
U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began at the end of February and
oil prices surged. Other major currencies such as the euro have
been hurt by their economies' dependence on oil imports.
But investors are positioning ahead of central bank meetings
this week, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European
Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
"Everything is being driven by oil at present; I don't think
the movement is necessarily correct," said Eugene Epstein, head
of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey.
The euro reversed course after hitting a 7-1/2-month
low earlier in the session, trading 0.92% higher at $1.1521.
Sterling was up 0.84% at $1.33345 - just above the
3-1/2-month low it hit on Friday.
The dollar index was down 0.64% to 99.70, snapping
four straight sessions of gains but still trading near Friday's
10-month high of 100.54.
"The market has priced in a lot of hawkishness purely based
on expectations of higher inflation because of this oil shock. I
think that's very misplaced and will eventually work its way out
in the coming weeks and maybe months," Epstein added.
"That's all directly affecting the dollar because if you
look at the market expectations for Fed policy, we were priced
in two cuts fully for 2026 and 50% chance of a third cut. Now,
we are barely pricing in one cut."
The market is estimating a near-100% chance that the Fed will
keep rates unchanged at the end of its meeting on Wednesday,
according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
U.S. President Donald Trump called on allies over the
weekend to help secure the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow passage
of water between Iran and Oman through which 20% of the world's
oil and liquefied natural gas flow - and said his administration
was talking to seven countries about it. The Wall Street Journal
reported that Washington plans to announce as early as this week
that multiple countries have agreed to escort ships through the
waterway.
Brent crude futures settled down 2.8% at $100.21 a
barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell
5.28% to settle at $93.50. Both contracts have surged more than
40% this month to their highest since 2022, driven by the Middle
East conflict.
"Wednesday's FOMC is unlikely to be a pivotal event for the
USD in this environment," said Bank of America Global Research
analysts led by Mark Cabana in an investor note.
"No expected policy changes are on the horizon, and
geopolitically-driven uncertainty is rising by the day, keeping
the USD supported. The overall messaging and tone from Chair
Powell will likely underscore these increased uncertainties,
while any revealed bias on the inflation or growth risks will
likely be quickly digested by the FX market."
YEN HOVERS NEAR INTERVENTION ZONE
The Australian dollar rose 1.4% to $0.7077, buoyed by
hawkish rate expectations at home with the Reserve Bank of
Australia expected to tighten policy on Tuesday.
Markets now price in a roughly 72% chance that the RBA could
deliver a 25-basis-point hike.
The yen traded just below 160 per dollar - its weakest levels
since the BOJ's last intervention to strengthen the currency in
July 2024. It has come under pressure due to the nation's heavy
reliance on the Middle East for energy supplies, with the war
also throwing into question the BOJ's rate outlook.
The dollar was down 0.47% to 158.97 against the
Japanese yen.
Elsewhere, the dollar weakened 0.21% to 6.890 versus
the offshore Chinese yuan.