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FOREX-Dollar slips as markets eye central bank meetings amid Middle East conflict
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FOREX-Dollar slips as markets eye central bank meetings amid Middle East conflict
Mar 16, 2026 12:43 PM

* Dollar pulls back slightly, still near 10-month high

* Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ among central banks to meet this

week

* Focus on inflation, growth outlook as Middle East war

drags on

* RBA expected to hike rates

(Updates prices throughout, adds analyst comment and oil

settlement)

By Chibuike Oguh

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - The dollar pulled back

from 10-month highs on Monday in a week packed with key central

bank meetings even as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict

continued to weigh on markets.

The dollar has benefited from a flight to safety since the

U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began at the end of February and

oil prices surged. Other major currencies such as the euro have

been hurt by their economies' dependence on oil imports.

But investors are positioning ahead of central bank meetings

this week, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European

Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

"Everything is being driven by oil at present; I don't think

the movement is necessarily correct," said Eugene Epstein, head

of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey.

The euro reversed course after hitting a 7-1/2-month

low earlier in the session, trading 0.92% higher at $1.1521.

Sterling was up 0.84% at $1.33345 - just above the

3-1/2-month low it hit on Friday.

The dollar index was down 0.64% to 99.70, snapping

four straight sessions of gains but still trading near Friday's

10-month high of 100.54.

"The market has priced in a lot of hawkishness purely based

on expectations of higher inflation because of this oil shock. I

think that's very misplaced and will eventually work its way out

in the coming weeks and maybe months," Epstein added.

"That's all directly affecting the dollar because if you

look at the market expectations for Fed policy, we were priced

in two cuts fully for 2026 and 50% chance of a third cut. Now,

we are barely pricing in one cut."

The market is estimating a near-100% chance that the Fed will

keep rates unchanged at the end of its meeting on Wednesday,

according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

U.S. President Donald Trump called on allies over the

weekend to help secure the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow passage

of water between Iran and Oman through which 20% of the world's

oil and liquefied natural gas flow - and said his administration

was talking to seven countries about it. The Wall Street Journal

reported that Washington plans to announce as early as this week

that multiple countries have agreed to escort ships through the

waterway.

Brent crude futures settled down 2.8% at $100.21 a

barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell

5.28% to settle at $93.50. Both contracts have surged more than

40% this month to their highest since 2022, driven by the Middle

East conflict.

"Wednesday's FOMC is unlikely to be a pivotal event for the

USD in this environment," said Bank of America Global Research

analysts led by Mark Cabana in an investor note.

"No expected policy changes are on the horizon, and

geopolitically-driven uncertainty is rising by the day, keeping

the USD supported. The overall messaging and tone from Chair

Powell will likely underscore these increased uncertainties,

while any revealed bias on the inflation or growth risks will

likely be quickly digested by the FX market."

YEN HOVERS NEAR INTERVENTION ZONE

The Australian dollar rose 1.4% to $0.7077, buoyed by

hawkish rate expectations at home with the Reserve Bank of

Australia expected to tighten policy on Tuesday.

Markets now price in a roughly 72% chance that the RBA could

deliver a 25-basis-point hike.

The yen traded just below 160 per dollar - its weakest levels

since the BOJ's last intervention to strengthen the currency in

July 2024. It has come under pressure due to the nation's heavy

reliance on the Middle East for energy supplies, with the war

also throwing into question the BOJ's rate outlook.

The dollar was down 0.47% to 158.97 against the

Japanese yen.

Elsewhere, the dollar weakened 0.21% to 6.890 versus

the offshore Chinese yuan.

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