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Investors await preliminary U.S. jobs data revisions
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Odds of 50 basis point Fed cut in September at 12%
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Gold hits record high on Fed cut wagers
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Political developments in focus for EUR, JPY
(Updates to Europe morning, adds comment)
By Gregor Stuart Hunter and Jaspreet Kalra
SINGAPORE/MUMBAI, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The dollar wallowed
close to a seven-week low on Tuesday as investors braced for
U.S. data revisions that could point to a jobs market in worse
shape than initially thought, shoring up the case for even
deeper Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The dollar weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen
to 147.21, while sterling was up 0.1% at $1.3558. The
euro slipped to $1.1752 after touching its strongest
level since July 24.
Against a basket of peers, the dollar slipped to a
low of 97.25, its lowest since late-July, ahead of the release
of preliminary benchmark revisions for jobs data covering the
period from April 2024 to March 2025.
Economists anticipate a downward revision of as much as
800,000 jobs, which could signal that the Fed is behind the
curve in efforts to achieve maximum employment.
Traders' expectations of more aggressive Fed easing are
gradually increasing. Money markets have fully priced in a
25-basis point cut, and the odds of an outsized 50-basis point
reduction have drifted higher to nearly 12% as well, per CME's
FedWatch tool.
Current money market pricing indicates quite a bit of doubt
around the Fed actually opting for a 50-basis point cut, but if
the revisions are meaningful it may add to the case for a bigger
step, said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and
rates at Societe Generale.
Advisers to the Trump administration are preparing a report
laying out the alleged shortcomings of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, which they may publish in coming weeks, The Wall
Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.
Burgeoning expectations of policy easing by the Fed have
also helped lift the spot gold price to a record high of
$3,659.10 per ounce on Tuesday.
Among other currencies, the Norwegian crown
advanced about 0.2% each against the dollar and the euro
after Norway's minority Labour Party government won
a second term in power on Monday.
Political developments across Tokyo to Buenos Aires are
likely to stay in focus for investors after the resignation of
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the ouster of French
Prime Minister Francois Bayrou and the abrupt removal of
Indonesia's finance chief, all over the past few days.
"While the political uncertainty is an unfavourable
development, we continue to believe that it is unlikely to be
sufficient on its own to trigger a weaker euro," Lee Hardman,
senior currency analyst at MUFG said in a note.
Later this week, the European Central Bank is widely
expected to keep rates unchanged at its policy meeting on
Thursday.
Economists were split last month on the likelihood of
further rate reductions by the ECB, but sentiment has shifted
with recent data showing inflation holding close to the 2%
target and unemployment at a record low.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.8% after the
government replaced its finance minister on Monday. Bank
Indonesia was seen buying longer-dated government bonds on
Tuesday in an attempt to stabilise the market, according to two
traders.