* Euro hits 7-1/2-month low
* Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ among central banks to meet this
week
* Focus on inflation, growth outlook as Middle East war
drags on
* RBA expected to hike rates
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) - The dollar held near a
10-month high on Monday in a tentative start to the week, as
investors braced for a slew of central bank meetings under the
shadow of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
At least eight central banks, including the U.S. Federal
Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the
Bank of Japan meet this week to set rates, in their first policy
meetings since the Middle East conflict began.
Focus will be on policymakers' assessment of the impact of
higher oil prices on inflation and growth.
"The war ... poses downside risk to economic growth and
upside risks to inflation, so central bank responses will very
much depend on the recent context, specifically whether
inflation has been above, on, or below target," said Carol Kong,
a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Ahead of the meetings, the dollar retraced some of last
week's strong gains, leaving the euro bouncing slightly
from a 7-1/2-month low hit earlier in the session to trade 0.14%
higher at $1.1433.
Sterling was up 0.17% at $1.3245, though was not far
from the 3-1/2-month low it hit on Friday as it clocked a 1.5%
weekly decline.
The dollar index eased slightly to 100.20, but
remained perched near last week's 10-month high.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is demanding
that other countries help protect the Strait of Hormuz, adding
that Washington is in talks with several nations about policing
the critical shipping lane for oil and gas.
He warned in a separate interview with the Financial Times
that NATO faces a "very bad" future if U.S. allies fail to
assist in opening up the Strait.
The prospect of easing global energy disruptions sent oil
prices down slightly, but markets remained in disarray with
geopolitical tensions still running high and uncertainty over
when the war, now in its third week, could end.
"As things stand now, the likelihood we will really see a
change in current trajectory for central banks and their
monetary policies around the world is, in our view, very, very
limited," said Jorry Noeddekaer, head of global emerging markets
and Asia at Polar Capital, whose base case is for the war to be
relatively short-lived.
RBA TO HIKE, BOJ IN DIFFICULT SPOT
The Australian dollar was up 0.55% at $0.7019, buoyed
by hawkish rate expectations at home as the Reserve Bank of
Australia is seen tightening policy on Tuesday.
Markets are now pricing in a 74% chance that the RBA could
deliver a 25-basis-point hike.
"We are now pencilling two more hikes, one this week and
another in May," said CBA's Kong.
"In Australia, inflation was already too high even before
the Middle East conflict started, so with the new energy price
shock, that will further increase risks to inflation."
The yen meanwhile languished near the 160-per-dollar
level and last stood at 159.44.
The Japanese currency has come under pressure due to the
nation's heavy reliance on the Middle East for energy supplies,
with the war also throwing into question the BOJ's rate outlook.
"For Japan, the key risk is not simply higher oil prices,
but a deterioration in terms of trade driven by the costs of
imported energy and logistics, compounded by yen weakness and
constrained monetary policy flexibility," said Amova Asset
Management's chief global strategist, Naomi Fink.
"Markets - especially foreign exchange - may be
underestimating the probability of these pressures forcing a
more difficult policy trade-off for the Bank of Japan."
Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar was up 0.47% at
$0.5803, while the offshore yuan strengthened slightly to
6.9002 per dollar.
Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials held "remarkably
stable" talks in Paris on Sunday that touched on potential areas
of agreement in agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade
for Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to consider in
Beijing, sources said.