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FOREX-Dollar steady as markets navigate Iran ceasefire uncertainty 
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FOREX-Dollar steady as markets navigate Iran ceasefire uncertainty 
Apr 22, 2026 1:30 AM

* Dollar broadly steady

* Uncertainty over Iran war outlook persists

* Warsh says he made "no promises" to Trump over rate

cuts

(Updates throughout)

By Sophie Kiderlin and Gregor Stuart Hunter

LONDON/TOKYO, April 22 (Reuters) - The dollar was steady

though it traded near a one-week high on Wednesday, as

uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East appeared to

persist even after U.S. President Donald Trump extended

indefinitely a ceasefire with Iran.

Following Trump's announcement, it was not clear if Iran or

Israel, the U.S.' partner in the two-month war, would agree. The

president also said he would continue the U.S. Navy's blockade

of Iran's trade by sea, which is considered an act of war by

Iran.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's

strength against a basket of six currencies, was little changed

at 98.324.

"It's tough to have a really strong conviction at this

point," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.

But, he noted, "overall it seems like both sides are more

inclined to make progress than to re-escalate."

"That's a very broad and rough and low conviction statement

and I treat it with obvious caution. But I think we've seen that

the appetite to re-engage is relatively low. So that's a good

thing in the general sense and the market is clearly pricing

that sort of slightly positive story."

Most other currencies were also little changed, with the

euro last at $1.1748 and the British pound at

$1.3512. Data on Wednesday showed that British consumer price

inflation rose to an annual rate of 3.3% in March from 3.0% in

February, which showed the first impact on prices from the war

in the Middle East.

Against the yen, the U.S. dollar was also broadly

steady at 159.24 yen after data earlier showed Japan's exports

rose for a seventh straight month, defying any major impact from

the Gulf conflict.

REGIME CHANGE AT THE FED

Meanwhile, markets also weighed Kevin Warsh's comments at a

Senate confirmation hearing, which were interpreted as slightly

hawkish. He is the White House's nominee to lead the U.S.

Federal Reserve.

Warsh on Tuesday said he had made no promises to Trump about

cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure U.S. senators

mulling his confirmation that he would act independently of the

White House while pursuing broad reforms.

"The most interesting points were probably that he

emphasised the Fed's independence and clearly rejected any

request from President Trump to cut rates; taken together, the

overall tone could be described as slightly hawkish," said Junya

Tanase, chief Japan FX strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co in

Tokyo.

"That said, since OIS pricing barely moved even after

Warsh's remarks, yesterday's rise in U.S. yields and the USD's

strength were likely driven mainly by higher oil prices on

Iran-related news, suggesting Warsh's impact was limited," he

said, referring to overnight indexed swaps, which traders use to

gauge market expectations of central bank decisions.

Traders are dialling back expectations of when the Fed could

next ease monetary policy and they still lack conviction over

the prospect of rate cuts until deep into 2027. Fed funds

futures are pricing in an implied 57.9% probability that the

U.S. central bank will hold rates steady as late as its meeting

ending on April 28 next year, compared with a good chance of a

cut a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 2.8% at

$77,863.88, while ether jumped nearly 3% to $2,387.03.

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