(Updates at 0850 GMT)
By Alun John and Anna Pruchnicka
LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar was around its
highest since November against a basket of peers on Thursday,
after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data a day earlier
squashed expectations of an interest rate cut in June, leaving
the yen at a 34-year low.
Investor focus will now be on U.S. producer price data and
the European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day.
The euro was flat at $1.0748, following
Wednesday's 1% fall on the U.S. data. The pound was up
0.18% at $1.2561 after a 1.1% fall a day earlier.
Any change in ECB rates would come as a major surprise to
markets, but the focus is on what president Christine Lagarde
says about the pace of cuts, after multiple hints from policy
markers in recent weeks, some quite explicit, that the central
bank will start cuts at its June meeting.
The outlook for the ECB and for other central banks has been
complicated by the U.S. inflation print which caused markets to
push back significantly their expectations of rate cuts from the
Federal Reserve, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex
Europe.
"The ECB will likely try to be as non-committal as possible
about their path after June at today's meeting," he said, adding
that the economic situation in Europe meant the central bank
would have to cut more sharply than its U.S. counterpart in the
coming months, which would send the euro lower.
The yen was at 153.26 per dollar, flat on the day,
but at its weakest since 1990 again after a bruising Wednesday
which saw the dollar climb nearly 1% on the Japanese currency.
That left the dollar index little changed on Thursday
at 105.16, having hit its highest since November in early trade.
Markets are now pricing in a 17% chance of the Fed cutting
rates in June, compared with 50% before the CPI data, according
to CME FedWatch tool, with September turning out to be the next
starting point for rate cuts.
Traders are also pricing in 43 basis points of cuts this
year, much lower than the 75 basis points of easing projected by
the U.S. central bank. At the start of the year, traders had
priced in over 150 bps of cuts in 2024.
U.S. producer price inflation data later today could shape
that picture further, as it will give additional information
about what to expect from personal consumption inflation data,
due later in the month, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation.
The Canadian dollar hit its weakest since November at C$
1.3702 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday, on the CPI data and after
the Bank of Canada left rates steady but said a June cut was
possible.
YEN WATCH
The yen's slide to a 34-year low of 153.24 per U.S. dollar
on Wednesday brought intervention fears back as authorities in
Tokyo reiterated they would not rule out any steps to deal with
excessive swings.
Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022
as the yen slid toward what was then a 32-year low of 152 to the
dollar.
"These warnings from Tokyo will quickly start to sound
hollow and hence for credibility purposes alone, we maintain
that intervention looks imminent," said MUFG analysts in a note.
"It may require one further sharp jump toward 155.00 (for
dollar/yen) to justify it more clearly given the fact that the
moves to date certainly are more modest than in 2022 when
intervention took place."
The yen is down nearly 8% against the dollar this year, with
the currency rooted near 151-per-dollar levels since the Bank of
Japan last month ended eight years of negative interest rates.
Low Japanese rates have made the yen the funding currency of
choice for carry trades for years, in which traders typically
borrow a low-yielding currency to then sell and invest the
proceeds in assets denominated in a higher-yielding one.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday the
central bank would not directly respond to currency moves in
setting monetary policy, brushing aside market speculation that
the yen's sharp falls could force it to raise interest rates.