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FOREX-Investors rush into safe-haven currencies after Kremlin nuclear doctrine
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FOREX-Investors rush into safe-haven currencies after Kremlin nuclear doctrine
Nov 19, 2024 8:33 PM

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Investors rush into safe-haven currencies after Kremlin

remarks

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Yen, Swiss Franc jump versus euro

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U.S. dollar index extends its rise

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Analysts said markets too complacent to geopolitical risks

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(Updates after Kremlin statement)

By Stefano Rebaudo

Nov 19 (Reuters) - Investors rushed into safe-haven

currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc and the

yen, after a warning from Russia over its updated nuclear

doctrine.

The Kremlin said the aim was to make potential enemies

understand the inevitability of retaliation for an attack on

Russia or its allies.

The yen jumped 0.7% versus the dollar and 1.2%

against the euro, hitting a multi-week high versus

the single currency at and 161.50.

The yen has fallen some 7% since October and had weakened

past the 156 per dollar level for the first time since July last

week, putting traders on alert for any intervention from

Japanese authorities to shore up the currency.

The Swiss franc was up 0.4% versus the euro to 0.9318 after

hitting 0.9305, its highest since early August.

The U.S. dollar index - a measure of its value

relative to a basket of foreign currencies - rose 0.3% to

106.53. It hit 107.07 last week, its highest level since

November, 2023.

"Typical risk-off move in forex following the headline,"

said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at

Bofa, referring to the reaction to the Kremlin statement.

"The market has been complacent on geopolitical risks,

focusing on other themes," he added. "Positioning has been long

risk, getting even more stretched after the U.S. elections."

The greenback has risen more than 2% this month, buoyed by

reduced expectations of the extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts

and the view that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will adopt

inflationary policies.

The dollar started the European session with a small rise as

investors closely watch Trump's search for a Treasury secretary.

Among the names being considered are Apollo Global

Management ( APO ) Chief Executive Marc Rowan and former Federal

Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh.

Analysts have been pointing out that Warsh is seen as less

protectionist than the other candidates. The perceived growing

likelihood that he might land the job may have been a

significant factor in the intra-day Treasury rally on Monday,

they say.

TREASURY YIELDS

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Monday as traders

digested a still-strong U.S. economy and the likely policies of

a Trump administration.

"Given the large budget deficit "a candidate that will offer

less of a counterweight to some of President-elect Trump's plans

could see the long end of the U.S. Treasury market sell off and

perhaps even soften the dollar too," said Chris Turner, head of

forex strategy at ING.

Markets expect Trump to cut taxes, which could boost the

budget deficit.

Investors are also waiting for the euro area's negotiated

wage figures due on Wednesday and regional purchasing manager

surveys on Friday, which could be crucial for the European

Central Bank decision in December.

Markets are fully pricing a 25 basis-point rate cut and a

bit less than a 20% chance of a 50 bps move, which, according to

some analysts, is still on the table.

On Monday, two top ECB policymakers signalled that they were

more worried about the damage that expected new U.S. trade

tariffs would do to growth than any impact on inflation.

The euro dropped 0.4% to $1.0553. It hit $1.0496

last week, its lowest since early October 2023.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar last traded at

$0.6494.

The Reserve Bank of Australia offered indirect support by

reiterating that interest rates were unlikely to be cut soon,

and might even have to be raised under some scenarios.

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