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Investors rush into safe-haven currencies after Kremlin
remarks
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Yen, Swiss Franc jump versus euro
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U.S. dollar index extends its rise
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Analysts said markets too complacent to geopolitical risks
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(Updates after Kremlin statement)
By Stefano Rebaudo
Nov 19 (Reuters) - Investors rushed into safe-haven
currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc and the
yen, after a warning from Russia over its updated nuclear
doctrine.
The Kremlin said the aim was to make potential enemies
understand the inevitability of retaliation for an attack on
Russia or its allies.
The yen jumped 0.7% versus the dollar and 1.2%
against the euro, hitting a multi-week high versus
the single currency at and 161.50.
The yen has fallen some 7% since October and had weakened
past the 156 per dollar level for the first time since July last
week, putting traders on alert for any intervention from
Japanese authorities to shore up the currency.
The Swiss franc was up 0.4% versus the euro to 0.9318 after
hitting 0.9305, its highest since early August.
The U.S. dollar index - a measure of its value
relative to a basket of foreign currencies - rose 0.3% to
106.53. It hit 107.07 last week, its highest level since
November, 2023.
"Typical risk-off move in forex following the headline,"
said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at
Bofa, referring to the reaction to the Kremlin statement.
"The market has been complacent on geopolitical risks,
focusing on other themes," he added. "Positioning has been long
risk, getting even more stretched after the U.S. elections."
The greenback has risen more than 2% this month, buoyed by
reduced expectations of the extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts
and the view that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will adopt
inflationary policies.
The dollar started the European session with a small rise as
investors closely watch Trump's search for a Treasury secretary.
Among the names being considered are Apollo Global
Management ( APO ) Chief Executive Marc Rowan and former Federal
Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh.
Analysts have been pointing out that Warsh is seen as less
protectionist than the other candidates. The perceived growing
likelihood that he might land the job may have been a
significant factor in the intra-day Treasury rally on Monday,
they say.
TREASURY YIELDS
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Monday as traders
digested a still-strong U.S. economy and the likely policies of
a Trump administration.
"Given the large budget deficit "a candidate that will offer
less of a counterweight to some of President-elect Trump's plans
could see the long end of the U.S. Treasury market sell off and
perhaps even soften the dollar too," said Chris Turner, head of
forex strategy at ING.
Markets expect Trump to cut taxes, which could boost the
budget deficit.
Investors are also waiting for the euro area's negotiated
wage figures due on Wednesday and regional purchasing manager
surveys on Friday, which could be crucial for the European
Central Bank decision in December.
Markets are fully pricing a 25 basis-point rate cut and a
bit less than a 20% chance of a 50 bps move, which, according to
some analysts, is still on the table.
On Monday, two top ECB policymakers signalled that they were
more worried about the damage that expected new U.S. trade
tariffs would do to growth than any impact on inflation.
The euro dropped 0.4% to $1.0553. It hit $1.0496
last week, its lowest since early October 2023.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar last traded at
$0.6494.
The Reserve Bank of Australia offered indirect support by
reiterating that interest rates were unlikely to be cut soon,
and might even have to be raised under some scenarios.