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FOREX-Yen climbs on reports BoJ warming to rate rise, dollar heads to weekly drop
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FOREX-Yen climbs on reports BoJ warming to rate rise, dollar heads to weekly drop
Mar 8, 2024 5:47 AM

(Updates news, prices and headline at 1259 GMT)

By Joice Alves

LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - The yen rose to a fresh

five-week high against the dollar on Friday after reports the

Bank of Japan is warming to the idea of raising interest rates

and considering a new quantitative monetary policy framework.

Jiji news agency reported the BoJ is considering a framework

that will show the outlook for upcoming government bond buying

amounts.

Separately, Reuters reported a growing number of BoJ

policymakers could support ending negative interest rates this

month on expectations that this year's annual wage negotiations

will yield strong results, four sources familiar with its

thinking said.

The yen was 0.6% higher against the dollar at

147.18, after rising to 146.87 yen, its highest level since

early February. It is up around 2% on the week, its strongest

weekly percentage rise since mid-July, as policymakers have

noted signs of a positive wage-price cycle sustaining inflation

- setting the stage for Japan's first interest rate increase in

17 years.

"The yen is rising as speculation mounts that the BoJ will

buck the global central bank trend and hike interest rates later

this month," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

"In the short term, a powerful downtrend seems to be

building for USD/JPY, and we believe that this pair could test

145.00, especially if we see a moderation in U.S. payrolls

growth later today," she added.

The dollar index was set for its sharpest weekly drop since

mid-December ahead of U.S. payrolls data and after Federal

Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting

interest rates in coming months.

Speaking on Thursday, Powell said the Fed was "not far" from

having the confidence it needed to cut rates. Currencies

typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates.

The dollar index edged 0.01% higher to 102.78, but

was still heading for its sharpest one-week decline since

mid-December, down around 1% this week against a basket of six

peers.

The key data on Friday is the U.S. job report that could

confirm or confound market expectations for a U.S. cut by June.

Economists expect the U.S. to have added a solid 200,000

jobs after January's blowout 353,000.

"A report this Friday in line with the 200k consensus for

the non-farm payrolls increase would certainly keep the Fed in

its holding pattern," said Padhraic Garvey, Regional Head of

Research at ING.

"It (the data) will be instrumental in determining the

direction of markets ahead, but it appears that rates markets

have been setting themselves up for a much weaker figure."

ECB SPRING CUT

Weakening the euro against the dollar, there were signs that

the European Central Bank's governing council had begun to

discuss a suitable timeline for monetary policy easing.

The ECB kept rates at record highs of 4.00% on Thursday

while cautiously laying the ground to lower them later this

year, saying it had made good progress in bringing down

inflation.

On Friday, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said

there was a strong consensus at the central bank that interest

rates would be lowered this spring, adding that "spring is from

April until June 21".

Other ECB policymakers - Olli Rehn and Robert Holzmann -

lined up on Friday in support of an interest rate cut in the

coming months.

The common currency fell 0.16% to $1.0931 after

hitting an almost two-month high of $1.0956 during Asia trading

hours, putting it back in the middle of a range it has kept for

a year. It is up around 1% against the dollar for the week.

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