*
U.S. GDP rises more than expected in Q2
*
U.S. jobless claims fall unexpectedly
*
U.S. durable good orders plunge in June
*
Futures market prices higher chance of BOJ rate hike
*
Dollar falls to lowest since May vs Chinese yuan
(Adds comment, graphic, updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) -
The yen edged lower from a 2-1/2-month high against the U.S.
dollar on Thursday, as financial markets stabilized, with investors
looking ahead to next week's Bank of Japan meeting which could see a
potential rate hike.
The Japanese unit this week rallied sharply as market
participants unwound their long-held bets against the currency. At the
same time, a plunge in global stocks in recent sessions had driven
investors toward traditionally safe assets such as the Swiss franc and
yen.
U.S. equities, however, recovered on Thursday after a steep
sell-off in the previous session.
For the week, the yen has risen 2.4%, on track for its best weekly
gain since late April. The greenback was last slightly down at 153.84
yen.
The dollar, however, trimmed losses against the yen and euro after
data showed the world's largest economy expanded faster than expected
and inflation slowed in the second quarter. That reduced brewing
expectations of a larger-than-expected rate cut in September, or a
sudden Federal Reserve easing at next week's meeting.
"The Japanese yen is flatlining on diminished safe-haven demand,
and the speculative fervor behind its recent bull run seems to be
running out of steam," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at
Corpay in Toronto.
"We think markets have gotten a little too far over their skis
given that underlying economic fundamentals don't yet support a rapid
tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan, and that rate differentials
will remain wide even if the Fed begins cutting in coming months."
The rate futures market has priced in a 67.2% chance that the BOJ
will raise rates next week by 10 basis points (bps), up from about 40%
earlier in the week, according to LSEG estimates.
The euro was slightly up against the dollar at $1.0846,
with the dollar index flat at 104.36. The index was at 104.21
just before the release of economic growth data.
Advance estimates showed that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)
grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the last quarter. Economists polled
by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.0% rate.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding
the volatile food and energy components, increased at a 2.9% rate
after surging at a 3.7% pace in the first quarter.
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar dropped 0.5% to 0.8806 francs
.
AHEAD OF ITSELF
"The market got ahead of itself on Fed cuts. Before the GDP
number, the market is pricing as if the Fed is going to cut 50 basis
points in September," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at
Bannockburn Forex in New York.
He also cited comments from former New York Fed President Bill
Dudley in a Bloomberg column on Wednesday, who said the Fed should cut
rates next week, citing recent employment data.
"The GDP number shows that the Fed is not under that kind of
urgency," Chandler said.
The Fed remains firmly on track to cut interest rates in
September, according to fed funds futures data. The futures market has
also priced in about 68 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, based on
LSEG calculations.
U.S. jobless claims data were also consistent with an economy
still holding up well.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended July 20, the data
showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 238,000 claims for
the latest week.
The only blemish, however, was the U.S. durables report, which
showed durable goods orders fell 6.6% in June on slumping
transportation orders, compared with expectations for a 0.3% rise.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar fell to
US$0.6519, its lowest since early May. It was last down 0.6% against
the greenback at US$0.6541.
China's yuan rallied against the dollar, which fell to
its lowest since early May at 7.205, as the yen's rally spilled over
to the Chinese unit. The dollar was last down 0.2% at 7.245
Currency
bid
prices at
25 July
07:28
p.m. GMT
Descripti RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD Pct High Low
on Close Change Bid Bid
Previous
Session
Dollar 07
Euro/Doll 829
Dollar/Ye 96
Euro/Yen 83
Dollar/Sw 78
Sterling/ 829
Dollar/Ca 97
Aussie/Do 511
Euro/Swis 22
Euro/Ster 95
NZ 73
llar
Dollar/No 83
Euro/Norw 317
Dollar/Sw 65
Euro/Swed 784