(Updates in European afternoon trade)
Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen edged up slightly
from five-month lows on Monday and the dollar held onto its
dominant position, as global currencies headed to the end of a
year characterised by diverging central bank outlooks.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.1% at
107.86 on the day. It has kept around the 108-level after
touching a two-year peak of 108.54 on Dec. 20.
Underpinned by rising U.S. yields and expectations for
U.S. rates to stay higher for longer, the dollar index is up 2%
in December, bringing year-to-date gains to 6.35%.
"Despite paid forecasters almost universally calling for a
weaker U.S. dollar in 2024, the greenback looks set to close the
year higher against all major currencies with the buck reigning
supreme," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said.
The dollar has gained in each of the last three months, with
traders expecting President-elect Donald Trump's policies of
looser regulation, tax cuts, tariff hikes and tighter
immigration to be both pro-growth and inflationary, which will
likely keep U.S. yields elevated.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a more than
seven-month high last week. The yield hovered close to that mark
on Monday, at 4.593%.
The yen was slowly ticking up from recent five-month lows,
and strengthened 0.16% to 157.55 per dollar on Monday,
with the risk of Japanese intervention preventing another test
of the 160 level last seen in July.
The dollar has gained 10 yen since Dec. 3, with much of the
decline in the Japanese currency coming after the Federal
Reserve's Dec. 18 message of caution around future rate cuts.
That view has weighed heavily on the yen, which hit its
weakest level since July 17 last week at 158.09 per dollar and
has shed more than 10% so far this year, on track for a fourth
yearly decline against the greenback.
It came off the July lows on Friday after a summary of
opinions from the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed
some policymakers gaining confidence in an imminent rate
increase, while the Japanese central bank also cut its monthly
bond purchases.
Still, Japanese yields remain notably low, and recent
comments have sown doubts about the BOJ's commitment to lift
rates. The BOJ held interest rates steady at 0.25% at this
month's meeting, and governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank
was scrutinising more data on next year's wage momentum and
clarity on the incoming U.S. administration's economic policies.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index, said the BOJ
may be better positioned to raise rates next year, and expected
the yen to rally in coming months.
"With above-target inflation remaining persistent for much
of 2024, price pressures could increase further should the yen
weaken even more. To support its currency, the Bank of Japan may
wish to start raising rates more meaningfully," Razaqzada said.
"A potential flight to safety, a drop in U.S. bond yields,
or government intervention could all help to weaken the
dollar/yen in 2025."
Traders are on watch for any potential intervention by
Japanese officials to shore up the currency if it continues to
weaken, as they have done multiple times this year.
The country's Ministry of Finance said on Monday it had
spent zero yen on currency intervention between Nov. 28 and Dec.
26.
Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Friday reiterated
concerns over a sliding yen, repeating his warning that the
government would take action against excessive currency moves.
HOLIDAY TRADE
Thin year-end liquidity kept other currencies in tight
ranges.
Sterling ticked up 0.12% to $1.2595, and the euro
rose 0.1% to $1.0441, but both currencies were still
not far from their recent troughs.
The euro is heading for a calendar-year drop of roughly 5.5%
on the dollar, after the European Central Bank cut interest
rates four times in 2024 and with markets expecting the ECB to
take a quicker pace with rate cuts than the Fed in 2025.
The next interest rate cut by the ECB could be longer in
coming after a recent uptick in inflation, ECB Governing Council
member Robert Holzmann was quoted as saying on Saturday.
Bitcoin was up around 0.5% at $93,833, but is down
about 3% on the month after retreating from a record high of
$108,379.28 hit on Dec. 17. The cryptocurrency has surged about
120% so far this year.