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Japan avoids technical recession in Q4 -data
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Investors eye BOJ exit from negative rates next week
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Focus on U.S. CPI on Tuesday
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By Harry Robertson and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
LONDON/NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) - The yen edged up
for a fourth straight session against the U.S. dollar in choppy
trading on Monday, bolstered by an upward revision to Japan's
growth figures and expectations the Bank of Japan could exit
negative rates at its policy meeting next week.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin soared to a fresh record high
above $72,000 underpinned by a surge in inflows into new spot
exchange-traded funds for the digital asset. Hopes that the
Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates have also lifted
bitcoin, which was last up 5.3% at $72,074.
The dollar was at 147.07 yen, slightly down on the
day.
A growing number of BOJ policymakers are warming to the idea
of ending negative rates at their March 18-19 meeting, sources
told Reuters, amid expectations for hefty pay rises from Japan's
biggest firms. Results of this year's annual "shunto" wage
negotiations are due on Wednesday.
At the same time, an upward revision to Japan's economic
growth last quarter meant the country avoided a technical
recession, adding to the argument the economy could weather
tighter policy.
"Yen remains one of the more volatile and interesting
currencies this year...speculation on the BOJ's movements next
week keep boosting dollar/yen," said Helen Given, FX trader, at
Monex USA in Washington.
"Japan avoiding a recession last year is quite notable as
well and will likely only add fuel to that fire."
The dollar index rose 0.2% to 102.9, not far from the
nearly two-month low of 102.33 reached on Friday when monthly
payrolls figures signalled a cooling U.S. labor market, keeping
the Fed on track to ease policy this year. The data did show
downward revisions to January's blowout number.
"(Fed Chair Jerome) Powell has said time and time again that
the Fed has been looking for softening in the labor market, and
it appears Friday's release - though on the surface quite hot -
might have shown the cracks necessary to move the needle
earlier," Given said.
Traders currently see June as most likely for the first cut,
bets that could be moved by important consumer price index
inflation data on Tuesday.
The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.0920 after jumping as
high as $1.0980 on Friday for the first time since Jan. 12. The
European Central Bank left rates at record highs last Thursday
while cautiously laying the ground to lower them later this
year.
Sterling dropped 1.1% against the dollar to
$1.2817, after pushing to the highest since late July at $1.2890
on Friday amid bets the Bank of England will be slower to cut
rates than the Fed or ECB. The British currency faces a test on
Tuesday with the release of jobs and wage data.
Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Japanese bank MUFG, in a
note to clients said the key data points for currencies this
week are the two U.S. inflation prints - Tuesday's consumer
price index and Thursday's producer price index.
"If inflation surprises to the upside again in February, it
will be harder to judge it as just a bump in the road to slowing
inflation, and provide more of a challenge to market
expectations for the Fed to begin cutting rates in June," he
said.
The Australian dollar was down 0.4% at US$0.6601
after jumping last week as the U.S. dollar fell on the back of
the slowdown in the labor market.