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FOREX-Yen struggles before BOJ decision; dollar steady ahead of jobs data
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FOREX-Yen struggles before BOJ decision; dollar steady ahead of jobs data
Nov 3, 2024 3:30 PM

(Updates with price levels as of 0145 GMT)

By Brigid Riley

TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The yen remained under

pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan looked set to keep

ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar paused

ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential

election next week.

The Japanese currency has taken a beating this month as the

dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have hovered around their

highest since July.

The yen has fallen more than 6% in October and is on track

for what would be its biggest monthly loss against the greenback

since November 2016.

Japan's political shakeup has only added to the yen's woes,

heightening uncertainty about the country's fiscal and monetary

policy outlook.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to stand pat on Thursday

and signal a cautious approach, as political uncertainty and

jittery markets cloud the outlook.

Still, analysts are divided over the prospect of additional

hikes by year-end, putting focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's

post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of

further rate increases.

The yen was down 0.05% at 153.49 versus the

dollar, not far off a three-month low of 153.885 hit on Monday.

"Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result

from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates

begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.

The recent decline in the yen may be making many traders

cautious given that excessive weakening could grab the attention

of Japanese authorities, he added.

Markets got more economic data from China ahead of the

BOJ's decision, with the National Statistics Bureau's

manufacturing PMI showing activity in October expanded for the

first time in six months.

The official PMI rose to 50.1 in October from 49.8 in

September, just above the 50-mark separating growth from

contraction and beating a median forecast of 49.9 in a Reuters

poll.

The offshore yuan held steady, last trading at

7.1325.

JOBS REPORT, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN FOCUS

U.S. nonfarm payrolls closes out the week on Friday in the

run-up to the presidential election on Tuesday.

Some investors have been putting on trades betting

Republican candidate Donald Trump will win, although he is still

neck and neck with Vice President Kamala Harris in several

polls.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against

six major rivals, rose 0.08% to 104.17, after softening the

previous day. It hit its highest since July 30 at 104.63 on

Tuesday.

"Data overnight reaffirmed the underlying strength of the

U.S. economy, largely supporting what's already built into the

price rather than providing a fresh catalyst for a renewed push

higher," Westpac analysts wrote in a note.

U.S. private payroll growth surged in October, data showed on

Wednesday, overcoming fears of temporary disruption from

hurricanes and strikes.

Meanwhile, separate data showed the U.S. economy grew at an

annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly lower

than the 3% expected by economists.

The euro edged down 0.07% to $1.08465 after rising as

high as $1.0871 on Wednesday. Regional inflation data and euro

zone GDP came in stronger than expected on Wednesday, leading

traders to trim back bets on an outsized rate cut from the

European Central Bank in December.

Sterling stood at $1.2951, down 0.08% so far on the

day.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slid 0.06% to $0.65675

after domestic retail sales numbers for September missed

estimates, inching up just 0.1%. Analysts had looked for a gain

of 0.3% in September.

The New Zealand dollar ticked up 0.13% to $0.598.

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