* Yen hands back half its intervention boost
* Weekly drop is largest since previous intervention faded
* Dollar balances oil gains with retreating rate hike bets
SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The yen headed for its biggest
weekly loss in about a month on Friday as the impact of U.S. and
Japanese intervention faded, leaving traders to wager that
either rate hikes or another round of official buying would be
needed to stem the decline.
The currency has surrendered roughly half the gains sparked
by intervention in late July and early August, falling about
0.9% this week to 159.29 per dollar. It was trading near
164 per dollar before July's intervention and traders see the
160 level as a potential trigger for fresh official action.
The yen's retreat mirrors a similar selloff in May, when it
was also backsliding after a round of official buying.
The Japanese currency rose slightly in Friday trade after
Reuters reported the Bank of Japan is set to raise rates as soon
as September and is considering more aggressive hikes to follow,
citing three people familiar with policymakers' thinking.
It has been falling, however, for years, and is not far from
four-decade lows, thanks to a combination of perennially low
interest rates and newer confidence concerns around government
spending.
The broader currency market has been fairly steady this
week, with support for the dollar from higher oil prices and
Middle East tension offset by benign U.S. jobs and inflation
reports that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes.
Thursday figures showing unchanged U.S. producer prices in
July further supported dialing back bets on a September hike,
now seen as a roughly 35% chance.
The euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.1541 this week while
sterling was flat at $1.3498. A surprisingly low
inflation expectations reading knocked the New Zealand dollar
on Thursday, but it bounced back as the swap market stuck
with an 85% chance of a rate hike in September.
The Australian dollar hovered at $0.7065.
THE ONUS IS ON BOJ
Since exiting a massive, decade-long stimulus in 2024, the
BOJ has raised interest rates at a pace of roughly twice a year,
a tempo it is considering picking up, according to sources
familiar with the bank's thinking, Reuters reported on Friday.
Japan may also conduct more joint yen intervention "at any
time", Tokyo's former top currency diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa
told Reuters in an interview.
Markets have already bet on the Bank of Japan raising rates
further and sooner than previously expected after U.S. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent said Japan should reinforce intervention
with policies and fundamentals that underpin the yen.
"It's not much of a surprise that the yen has retraced,"
said OCBC strategist Sim Moh Siong.
"Because for the intervention to change the yen trend, we
need to see a more hawkish BOJ stance, which the market is
trying to price in, but at the same time, we need validation,"
he said. "The onus is on BOJ to step up."
Markets currently see a 76% chance of a BOJ hike in
September, according to Tokyo Tanshi data, a dramatic increase
compared with 24% on July 30, but one which also opens the door
to yen falls if investors are disappointed.
China's yuan stood near Thursday's 3-1/2-year high of
6.74 per dollar.
South Korea's won, which was also supported by
official intervention as authorities sold dollars in concert
with Japan last month, has held steadier than the yen though it
was set to notch a modest loss of 0.6% against the dollar this
week.
"Interventions, to me, even if they're coordinated, even if
they are quite powerful, are at best temporary, and at worst an
invitation for the market to challenge them," said Omar Slim,
co-head of Asia public fixed income at MetLife Investment
Management.