Sept 2 (Reuters) - France's 30-year government bond
yields hit their highest levels in over 16 years on Tuesday,
driven by fiscal concerns, as Prime Minister François Bayrou
began talks with political parties in a bid to prevent a
government collapse.
France's far-right National Rally said on Monday it was
preparing for snap elections, anticipating that opposition
parties will bring down the minority government in a vote
scheduled for September 8.
French debt could rise further, with economists at ING
noting the government's target to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio to
117.6% by 2026 and 117.2% by 2029 compared to projected levels
of 118.3% and 125.3% without fiscal reforms.
France's 30-year government bond yield hit 4.513%,
its highest since June 2009, and was last up 5 basis points
(bps) at 4.50%.
The yield gap between safe-haven German Bunds and 10-year
French government bonds - a market gauge of the
risk premium investors demand to hold French debt - widened to
80 bps after rising up to 82 bps last week.
"European politics have come back into focus, with growing
anxiety surrounding a standoff over efforts to curb government
borrowing in France along with moves by European leaders to
underpin Ukraine's security following any peace deal," said Mark
Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS GWM.
Ultra long-dated government bonds have come under selling
pressure as markets expect Germany's investment plans, along
with likely increases in defence spending across euro area
countries, to push up debt levels.
The German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, rose 3 bps to 2.78%. Yields on 30-year
German bonds hit a fresh 14-year high at 3.413%.
Spain's 30-year yields were up 4.5 bps at 4.29%,
after reaching 4.297%, its highest since November 2023.
Italy's 30-year yields rose to their highest
since April at 4.661%.
Euro zone inflation edged up a touch in August, staying close to
the European Central Bank's 2% target and likely firming up
market bets that interest rates will remain unchanged in the
near term.
The ECB should keep interest rates steady as the euro zone
economy is holding its own in the face of U.S. tariffs and
inflation may still come in higher than expected, ECB
policymaker Isabel Schnabel told Reuters.
"The direction of inflation from here is still a live debate
at the Governing Council, as also highlighted by the more
hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel this morning," said
Michiel Tukker, rate strategist at ING.
"The ECB will have a bias towards more easing," he added,
after arguing that data are still showing close to zero growth.
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to ECB rate expectations, rose 1.5 bps to 1.97%.
Markets priced in around a 70% chance of an ECB rate cut of 25
bps in June 2026 but also a depo rate at
1.905% from the current 2% at the end 2026.