(Recasts, adds comments)
By Stefano Rebaudo
June 10 (Reuters) - French and Italian borrowing costs
touched multi-month highs on Monday and the premium investors
demand to hold the countries' bonds rose after eurosceptics
gained in a European vote and France called a snap parliamentary
election.
President Emmanuel Macron made the surprise call after his
camp lost heavily to the far-right National Rally in European
Parliament elections over the weekend.
The political shift may complicate European Union attempts
to deepen integration, increasing the risk premium investors
seek to hold bonds of the most indebted countries.
Italian and French sovereign credit default swaps also rose
to multi-week highs.
However, market participants expect the current increase in
volatility to be short-lived as centre, liberal and Socialist
parties are set to retain a majority in the parliament.
"The EU elections produced the expected shift to the right,
but the most important development may be the severe weakening
of the French and German leaders," said Citi in a research note.
"The silver lining could be an opening for Mario Draghi as
European Council President and agenda setter," it added,
referring to a former president of the European Central Bank.
The vote dealt a domestic blow to the leaders of both France
and Germany, raising questions about how the EU's major powers
can drive policy in the bloc.
It also increases uncertainty over whether European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected.
"The EU was facing a historically challenging time with both
internal and external 'cracking' in systemic issues that require
increased - not decreased - cooperation," said Dana Malas
strategist at SEB group.
The yield gap between French and German bond yields
widened 6 basis points (bps) to 53.5 bps.
France's 10-year yields were last 8.5 bps higher
at 3.19%, after hitting 3.2%, the most since November.
"Although other names have been mentioned, ex-ECB president
Mario Draghi, Italy's deputy prime minister Antonio Tajani or
even Romanian president Klaus Johannis, von der Leyen remains
the favourite, in our view," said Holger Schmieding chief
economist at Berenberg, referring to the Commission presidency.
The spread between Italian and German 10-year yields
widened 8 bps to 139 bps as Italy's 10-year yields
hit their highest since December at 4.056% and were
last up 9 bps at 4.04%.
The gap between Greek and German yields
widened 12 bps to 105, with equivalent Spanish and
Portuguese spreads widening about 3 bps.
"As long as the centrist majority acts as a unified bloc,
and the right-wing groups remain a non-coherent bloc, the impact
on the course of policy will remain limited," said Marion
Muehlberger, senior economist at Deutsche Bank.
"Fears of a populist shock seem to have been premature, but
they may serve as a barometer of where national politics is
headed," she added.
German yields edged higher as investors waited for U.S.
inflation figures ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting this
week, after jobs data on Friday suggested the U.S. central bank
would be in no rush to cut rates.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro
area, rose one bp to 2.60%.
Markets expect no change in Fed rates, but see a risk that
policymakers' "dot plot" analysis of potential future policy
changes might only point to one rate cut for this year.
They are currently pricing in 36.5 bps of easing in 2024
which implies one rate cut and a 46% chance of a
second move by December.