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French bond yields retreat from highs, election jitters remain
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French bond yields retreat from highs, election jitters remain
Jun 11, 2024 8:54 AM

(Adds PIMCO comments in paragraphs 10-12, refreshes prices at

1510 GMT)

By Samuel Indyk

LONDON, June 11 (Reuters) - France's 10-year government

bond yield briefly hit its highest since November on Tuesday,

rising for a fourth straight day after the president's decision

on Sunday to call a snap election drove investors out of French

assets.

France's 10-year bond yield leapt as much as 9.8

basis points (bps) to 3.338%, before handing back most of its

gains. It had surged 12 bps a day earlier in its biggest one-day

jump in 11 months, as the new election raised concerns about

already fragile public finances, analysts said.

President Emmanuel Macron called the snap legislative

election after heavy losses to Marine Le Pen's National Rally in

the European Parliament election over the weekend.

Le Pen's far-right party would win a snap election but fall

short of an absolute majority, according to a first opinion poll

held since Macron called the vote.

"Markets are worried that the possible next government will

not stick to fiscal consolidation," said Sophia Oertmann,

analyst for EMU government bonds at DZ Bank.

Ratings agency Moody's warned that France's election was

negative for its credit score, and the current 'stable' outlook

could be cut to 'negative' if debt metrics worsen.

By the afternoon, the sell-off had lost some steam, leaving

French 10-year yields up 1 bp at 3.25%.

That left the premium that investors demand to hold French

debt over the German equivalent 5 bps wider at 62 bps

. At one point on Tuesday, that spread hit a high

of almost 68 bps, its widest since October.

But that remains far below the 80 bps reached in 2017 when

Le Pen, now less eurosceptic, vowed to leave the euro if elected

during the French presidential election.

Andrew Balls, chief investment officer at PIMCO, one of the

world's largest bond investors, said on Tuesday that the

widening of French spreads could present a buying opportunity

before too long.

"We didn't quite decide where, but at a certain point French

spreads become attractive," he said.

Asked at what point that could be, he added "not too far"

from the current levels following the moves in recent days.

Elsewhere, German 10-year yields, the euro area

benchmark, were down 3.8 bps at 2.636%, with markets keeping a

close eye on events in the U.S. this week, with inflation data

and a Federal Reserve policy announcement both on Wednesday.

"We've had yesterday and today to digest the results of the

European elections but I would expect the market attention to

come back to monetary policy and inflation from tomorrow

onwards," DZ Bank's Oertmann said, describing the two data

points as being the top influences for the market.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first

time in five years last week, but President Christine Lagarde

said on Monday the central bank could wait several meetings

between rate cuts, pouring cold water on a possible cut in July.

Italy's 10-year yield, the benchmark for more

indebted countries of the euro zone, was up 1.6 bps at 4.097%,

leaving the Italian-German 10-year yield gap at

145 bps, its widest in three months.

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