Dec 6 (Reuters) - French debt risk premiums versus Bunds
dropped on Friday as hopes grew that France may end up with a
2025 budget approved by parliament, while the prospect of
European Union joint funding fuelled broader convergence among
bond yields.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new
prime minister in the coming days, and his top priority would be
getting a 2025 budget adopted by parliament.
Investors had worried the most likely outcome was an
extension of the 2024 budget to 2025, implying a less
restrictive fiscal policy which would have threatened the
government's ability to curb a burgeoning deficit.
The gap between French and German yields - a
gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt -
hit 72.40 basis points (bps), its lowest since Nov. 21. It was
last down 4 bps at 76.20 bps.
"Her (Marine Le Pen) comments suggest the political deadlock
may not be as stuck as suggested over the past few days," said
Michiel Tukker, senior European rate strategist at ING.
"Of course, these are just words, and reaching a credible
government budget that satisfies Le Pen's party will prove a
challenging task."
Far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who voted to
oust Barnier, said on Thursday that a budget could be passed
within weeks.
"Le Pen can bide her time, waiting to push for new
parliamentary elections in July next year," said Mark Dowding,
chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay. "In the short term,
this means that France remains a structurally deteriorating
credit," he argued.
RBC BlueBay said its positioning in OATs remains flat for
now, but it would look for opportunities to go short in 2025 if
spreads narrow.
Peripheral euro zone bond spreads also tightened following a
FT report that EU countries are discussing a 500 billion euro
joint fund for common defence projects and arms procurement.
The yield spread between Italian BTPs and safe-haven German
Bunds dropped to 105 bps on Friday, its lowest
level since Oct. 2021. It was last down 2.5 bps to 106.40 bps.
"BTPs are taking another major leap as prospects of more
joint funding on the European level for defence is boosting the
convergence trade," said Michael Leister, head of interest rates
strategy at Commerzbank.
"The convergence momentum (among euro area government bonds)
remains strong also given the overriding demand for carry."
Markets await U.S. payrolls later in the session that could
shape expectations for U.S. interest rates.
Germany's 10-year yield rose 2.5 bps to 2.12%
and was set to end the week 2 bps higher - on track for its
first weekly rise in over a month.
Markets await a European Central Bank policy meeting next
week.