LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year Bund yield
rose slightly on Wednesday to a more than five-month high,
supported by accelerating euro zone inflation, elevated bond
supply and strong U.S. data.
Inflation in the euro zone reached 2.4% last month after
2.2% in November, data showed on Tuesday, although analysts said
that was unlikely to derail the chances of a rate cut from the
European Central Bank later this month.
Markets are pricing about 24 basis points (bps) of easing
from the ECB at January's meeting, implying about a 96% chance
of a quarter-point cut.
But traders have trimmed expectations for future rate cuts
over the last month and are now pricing around 92 bps of easing
in 2025, implying three 25-bp moves and almost a 70% chance of a
fourth.
"The repricing of the ECB policy path has been an important
driver (of higher bond yields)," said Jussi Hiljanen, chief
rates strategist at SEB.
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro zone
benchmark, was last up 2 bps on the day at 2.51%, after hitting
2.53%, its highest since July last year. Bond yields move
inversely to prices.
Germany's policy-sensitive two-year yield was
down 0.5 bps at 2.20%, just below the two-month high of 2.214%
reached on Monday.
Europe's bond markets are having to absorb heavy issuance to
start the year, with Germany selling 5 billion euros of 10-year
Bunds and Italy set to sell new 10-year and 20-year green bonds
via syndication on Wednesday.
"January faces heavy supply which can weigh on fixed
income," wrote Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar in a note.
Analysts at UniCredit expect euro zone debt agencies to sell
a total of 135 billion euros of bonds this month, roughly 10% of
the total expected in 2025.
Italy's 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 3.67%,
pushing the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields
slightly tighter to 112 bps.
Better than expected U.S. data on Tuesday has also pushed
yields higher this week, with services sector activity
accelerating and job openings exceeding forecasts.
Attention was now turning to Wednesday's release of the
minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting, where the
central bank lowered rates by 25 bps but signalled a slower pace
of rate cuts ahead.