(Updates at 0805 GMT)
By Harry Robertson
LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - German bond yields tumbled to
their lowest in more than a year on Monday as investors rushed
to the safety of government debt and dumped stocks.
Weak U.S. employment data on Friday has shaken markets'
confidence in the global economy, causing traders to price in
heavy rate cuts from central banks in the coming months.
Germany's 2-year bond yield slid more than 15
basis points (bps) to 2.151%, the lowest level since March 2023.
The 2-year yield is particularly sensitive to European Central
Bank interest rate expectations.
The German 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro zone, dropped to 2.074%, the lowest since January. Yields
move inversely to prices.
The rally in bonds later moderated, with the German 2-year
yield last down 6 bps at 2.277%. The 10-year yield was 3 bps
lower at 2.129%.
"The weak U.S. employment data has clearly triggered a very
significant market reaction on the back of recession fears and
the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts," said Lyn
Graham-Taylor rates strategist at lender Rabobank.
Data on Friday showed that the U.S. unemployment rate
unexpectedly rose in July to 4.3%, up from 4.1% in June. The
economy added 114,000 jobs in July, down from 179,000 in June
and well below the 175,000 economists expected.
"It has been an extraordinarily weak overnight session as
Asian equities looked to have hit the panic button as they play
catch up with the U.S. data," Graham-Taylor said.
He added that after a "knee-jerk" reaction, "a bit of time
to digest has then seen a paring back" of the moves in bonds.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index plunged 12.4%
overnight in its biggest one-day fall since 1987.
Europe's STOXX 600 index was down 2.2% in morning
trading and futures for the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq index
were 3.4% lower.
In response to the weak U.S. data, traders have ramped up
their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
They now expect more than 120 bps of rate cuts by the end of
the year, and see a 90% chance of an outsized 50-bp reduction in
September, according to pricing in derivatives markets.
Worries about the knock-on effects of a U.S. slowdown saw
traders price in more than 90 bps of further cuts from the ECB
this year, up from around 70 bps on Friday and 50 bps a week
earlier.
Italian bonds, seen as a riskier investment due to the
country's high debt load, fared less well on Monday.
The gap or "spread" between Italian and German 10-year
borrowing costs rose more than 8 bps to 154 bps, its highest
since late June, before moderating.
"These moves underscore that markets are past the point
where bad macro news is good for spreads," said Hauke Siemssen,
rates strategist at Commerzbank.
"Increasing ECB cut expectations no longer compensate for
the worsening macro outlook."
Italy's 10-year yield was last down 2 bps at
3.618%.