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German bond yields rebound from lows as investors grapple with growth fears
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German bond yields rebound from lows as investors grapple with growth fears
Aug 5, 2024 9:17 AM

(Updates at 1535 GMT)

By Harry Robertson and Alun John

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - German bond yields tumbled to

their lowest in months on Monday as investors rushed to the

safety of government debt and dumped stocks, before a

reassessment partly helped by U.S. data left them trading near

flat on the day.

Weak U.S. employment data published on Friday shook markets'

confidence in the global economy, causing traders to price in

heavy rate cuts from central banks in the coming months.

Germany's 2-year bond yield slid more than 15

basis points (bps) in early trading to 2.151%, the lowest level

since March 2023. The 2-year yield is particularly sensitive to

European Central Bank interest rate expectations.

The German 10-year yield, the benchmark for the

euro zone, dropped to 2.074%, the lowest since January. Yields

move inversely to prices.

The rally in bonds later moderated, however, and the

turnaround was given further legs by U.S. data showing services

sector activity rebounded from a four-year low in July.

The 10-year yield was last flat on the day at 2.16%, with

the two year yield down just 2 bps at 2.32%.

Monday's sharp swings epitomise moves in bond markets

throughout 2024, as investors struggle to get a grip on the

state of the U.S. economy, what it means for Federal Reserve

policy, as well as the knock on effects on Europe.

At the start of the year, markets were pricing around six 25

bp rate cuts from the Federal Reserve they then swung to zero by

mid year on the back of resilient economic data and sticky

inflation, and are now back pricing 120 bps of cuts across the

Fed's three remaining meetings this year.

"It's a game of ping pong. Positioning goes a bit far on one

side and then reverses, and market moves have been extreme

because positioning has been extreme," said Samy Chaar, chief

economist at Lombard Odier.

"We're going a bit far to the extremes, 3.70% seems a bit

far on the US 10-year yield. It was a good buy at 4.50%, it is a

good sell at 3.70%."

The U.S. 10 year yield was last at 3.78%, down from 4.2% at

the start of last week and nearly 4.5% at the start of July.

Traders are currently pricing around 75 bps of European

Central Bank rate cuts, though were pricing around 90 earlier in

the day, as Europe took its lead from a bruising session in

Asia.

It was "an extraordinarily weak overnight session as Asian

equities looked to have hit the panic button as they play

catch-up with the U.S. data," said Lyn Graham-Taylor, rates

strategist at Rabobank.

Friday's data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate

unexpectedly rose in July to 4.3% from 4.1% in June. The economy

added 114,000 jobs in July, down from 179,000 in June and well

below the 175,000 that economists had expected.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index plunged 12.4%

overnight in its biggest one-day fall since 1987. While European

and U.S. shares were last down around 2%, both are above their

opening lows.

The gap or "spread" between Italian and German 10-year

borrowing costs rose more than 8 bps to 154 bps, its highest

since late June, before moderating. It was last at

148.6 bps.

"These moves underscore that markets are past the point

where bad macro news is good for spreads," said Hauke Siemssen,

rates strategist at Commerzbank.

"Increasing ECB cut expectations no longer compensate for

the worsening macro outlook."

Italy's 10-year yield was last up 5 bps at

3.79%.

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