(Updates at 1535 GMT)
By Harry Robertson and Alun John
LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - German bond yields tumbled to
their lowest in months on Monday as investors rushed to the
safety of government debt and dumped stocks, before a
reassessment partly helped by U.S. data left them trading near
flat on the day.
Weak U.S. employment data published on Friday shook markets'
confidence in the global economy, causing traders to price in
heavy rate cuts from central banks in the coming months.
Germany's 2-year bond yield slid more than 15
basis points (bps) in early trading to 2.151%, the lowest level
since March 2023. The 2-year yield is particularly sensitive to
European Central Bank interest rate expectations.
The German 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro zone, dropped to 2.074%, the lowest since January. Yields
move inversely to prices.
The rally in bonds later moderated, however, and the
turnaround was given further legs by U.S. data showing services
sector activity rebounded from a four-year low in July.
The 10-year yield was last flat on the day at 2.16%, with
the two year yield down just 2 bps at 2.32%.
Monday's sharp swings epitomise moves in bond markets
throughout 2024, as investors struggle to get a grip on the
state of the U.S. economy, what it means for Federal Reserve
policy, as well as the knock on effects on Europe.
At the start of the year, markets were pricing around six 25
bp rate cuts from the Federal Reserve they then swung to zero by
mid year on the back of resilient economic data and sticky
inflation, and are now back pricing 120 bps of cuts across the
Fed's three remaining meetings this year.
"It's a game of ping pong. Positioning goes a bit far on one
side and then reverses, and market moves have been extreme
because positioning has been extreme," said Samy Chaar, chief
economist at Lombard Odier.
"We're going a bit far to the extremes, 3.70% seems a bit
far on the US 10-year yield. It was a good buy at 4.50%, it is a
good sell at 3.70%."
The U.S. 10 year yield was last at 3.78%, down from 4.2% at
the start of last week and nearly 4.5% at the start of July.
Traders are currently pricing around 75 bps of European
Central Bank rate cuts, though were pricing around 90 earlier in
the day, as Europe took its lead from a bruising session in
Asia.
It was "an extraordinarily weak overnight session as Asian
equities looked to have hit the panic button as they play
catch-up with the U.S. data," said Lyn Graham-Taylor, rates
strategist at Rabobank.
Friday's data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate
unexpectedly rose in July to 4.3% from 4.1% in June. The economy
added 114,000 jobs in July, down from 179,000 in June and well
below the 175,000 that economists had expected.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index plunged 12.4%
overnight in its biggest one-day fall since 1987. While European
and U.S. shares were last down around 2%, both are above their
opening lows.
The gap or "spread" between Italian and German 10-year
borrowing costs rose more than 8 bps to 154 bps, its highest
since late June, before moderating. It was last at
148.6 bps.
"These moves underscore that markets are past the point
where bad macro news is good for spreads," said Hauke Siemssen,
rates strategist at Commerzbank.
"Increasing ECB cut expectations no longer compensate for
the worsening macro outlook."
Italy's 10-year yield was last up 5 bps at
3.79%.