(Updates at 0920 GMT)
By Alun John
LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) -
German government bond yields rose to their highest in over
six months on Friday, after data showed inflation in the
currency bloc rose in May and ahead of U.S. inflation figures,
both of which will shape central banks' rate cutting plans.
The higher-than expected euro zone inflation print of 2.6%
year on year is highly unlikely to disrupt market's confidence
in a European Central Bank rate cut next week, but casts doubt
on the central bank's path after that.
Markets are currently pricing around 57 bps of rate cuts
in 2024, and are indicating a 25 basis point cut in June, and
one more by year end. In recent weeks, they have been gradually
paring back expectations of a third cut this year.
The German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, was last 4.6 basis points higher on the day
at 2.7%, its highest since mid-November.
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, was 4 bps
higher at 3.12%, also an over six-month high.
The increase in the euro zone inflation rate to 2.6% in
May was expected, and the data is "neither good nor bad," ECB
governing council member
Fabio Panetta
said on Friday."
The data will nonetheless shape the narrative at the
ECB's meeting on June 6. Recent communication from rate setters
indicate a rate cut is all but certain, but they have given few
indications for their plans after that.
"The expected ECB policy easing would likely provide
short-term support to (European) rates, reducing the likelihood
of further sell-off from the already high levels," said UBS
analysts in a note.
"But for European rates to rally significantly from this
point, we would need to see more clarity on the ECB's
rate-cutting cycle. The ECB appears less committal after June
and it will continue to follow a data dependant stance, in our
view."
U.S. PCE inflation for April, the Federal Reserve's
preferred inflation gauge, is due at 1230 GMT. (0830 ET)
That will shape expectations for when the Fed cuts
rates, driving moves in U.S. Treasuries, and also have an effect
on European rates.
The spread between U.S. 10-year Treasuries and German
bunds widened 0.2 bps to 189 bps.
Italy's 10-year yield was higher by 4.3 basis
points at 4.00%, rising after the inflation data and the gap
between Italian and German bunds widened 0.4 basis
points to 129 bps.