SINGAPORE, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied
natural gas (LNG) prices gained this week, the first rise after
three weekly declines, as the imminent expiry of a transit deal
for Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe lent support to
prices.
The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east
Asia was $14.10 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), up 6% from $13.30/mmBtu last week, industry sources
estimated.
Asian LNG prices have gained 20% this year and averaged
$11.97/mmBtu in 2024.
"The biggest thing people are keeping an eye on is TTF's
upward movement," said Masanori Odaka, senior analyst at Rystad
Energy, referring to the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
hub.
He added that some industry participants were taking the
expiry of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract at the end of
this year as bullish news.
Russian gas supply into Europe could affect prices on the
TTF, which also has an impact on Asia LNG prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday there was
no time left this year to sign a new Ukrainian gas transit deal,
and blamed Ukraine for refusing to extend the agreement that
also brings gas to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria.
"The other thing is a cold front potential in the U.S. which
could end in a deep freeze like it did in 2021," Rystad's Odaka
added.
"Asia seems relatively well stocked, so below average to
normal winter will not likely cause China, Korea or Japan to buy
significant volumes in the spot market."
In Europe, delivered prices turned higher this week, mostly
on continued uncertainty about the agreement to continue gas
transit to Europe through Ukraine after the current deal
expires, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at commodity
pricing agency Argus.
"Weak wind generation forecasts in northwest Europe during
the Christmas break and into the weekend also supported
gas-fired generation demand," he added.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West
Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in
February on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $13.76/mmBtu on Dec. 24, a
$0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch TTF
hub.
Argus assessed the price at $13.745/mmBtu, while Spark
Commodities assessed the price for January delivery at
$13.753/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good
Hope for January is still currently closed due to the recent TTF
rally, providing more incentive for U.S. cargos to deliver to
Northwest Europe instead, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim
Afghan.
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates held steady at $23,500/day,
while Pacific rates fell to $21,500/day, added Afghan.