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GLOBAL LNG-Asia spot prices gain on hot weather, Australia facility outage
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GLOBAL LNG-Asia spot prices gain on hot weather, Australia facility outage
Jun 15, 2024 4:01 AM

(Updates June 14 story to add quotes)

By Emily Chow

SINGAPORE, June 15 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied

natural gas (LNG) prices rose to a six-month high this week on

the back of cooling demand in India, higher forecast

temperatures in northeast Asia and suspended production at an

Australian gas facility.

The average LNG price for July delivery into north-east Asia

was at $12.60 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), its highest level since Dec. 15, industry sources

estimated.

The August delivery price was estimated at $12.70/mmBtu.

"The strength of demand in Asia has provided some support to

prices and differentials," said Lucas Schmitt, research director

on short-term LNG at Wood Mackenzie. "The level of tendering

activity has remained high due to a combination of fundamental

drivers across countries, including strong economic activity,

hot weather, challenging upstream production and restocking

demand.

"We expect Asian summer LNG demand to increase year-on-year,

but at a softer rate than in the last few months. Inventories

for key northeast Asian markets seem broadly balanced," Schmitt

added.

Spot demand from India remains strong as a heatwave

persists, said a trader. Monsoon rains, however, have brought

some cooling and hesitancy amid high spot prices, said Rystad

Energy analyst Lu Ming Pang, which "may result in a possibility

of lower spot activity in India."

Pang added that northeast Asian buying had mainly been for

trade optimization, despite the meteorological agencies of Japan

and Korea forecasting a 50% probability of above-normal

temperatures in June and July.

"Despite the impending warm weather forecasts, there is

still a lack of significant market activity, which may suggest

sufficient supplies for the summer season ahead. At current

prices, it is likely that northeast Asian players will bide

their time to evaluate developments in summer requirements."

REPAIR WORK

On the supply side, Chevron ( CVX ) has suspended production

at its Wheatstone gas facility in Australia to repair the

platform's fuel gas system. It has commenced repair work, which

is expected to be completed in the coming weeks.

The production suspension supported Europe gas prices this

week. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily northwest

Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in

July on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $11.151/mmBtu on June 13, a

$0.07/mmBtu discount to the July gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.

Argus assessed the July delivery price at $11.10/mmBtu,

while Spark Commodities assessed it at $11.122/mmBtu.

But low European demand for gas has kept storage levels at

record highs this year, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting storage

will be full by end-September and remain so until end-October,

with an additional 4 million metric tonnes per annum (tpa) of

floating storage also accumulated.

"Limitations on European injection demand this summer and

weak downstream consumption continue to weigh on the region's

LNG receipts," said Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at

commodity pricing agency Argus.

"An open inter-basin arbitrage for Atlantic loadings is

continuing to draw LNG away from Europe and to Asia instead,

where demand has remained strong even as Asian spot delivered

prices have risen well into the double digits."

Meanwhile, LNG freight rates experienced sharp increases

this week, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, with the

Atlantic spot rate rising to $64,250/day on Friday, and the

Pacific rate gaining to $48,000/day.

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