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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG falls on muted demand, strong inventories
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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG falls on muted demand, strong inventories
Dec 13, 2024 6:12 AM

LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural

gas (LNG) prices fell this week amid weak demand and the

availability of more supply in the spot market.

The average LNG price for January delivery into north-east

Asia was at $14.50 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), down from $15.00/mmBtu last week, industry sources

estimated.

The price for February delivery was estimated even lower at

$13.50/mmBtu, the sources said.

"Rates in Asia have continued to slide due to weak demand,

coupled with ample storage, and exacerbated by majors offering

out for prompt into Q1 cargoes. We're likely to see further dips

as the winter has been relatively mild," said Toby Copson, an

independent LNG expert.

Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at Argus, said that

purchasing interest across Asia more broadly has weakened in the

face of recent higher prices. There has also been more supply

offered on the spot market both from the Asia-Pacific and also

the Atlantic as sellers in the basin look to Asia amid weaker

European demand.

In Europe, gas prices have fallen nearly 9% over the week on

a sell-off in net long positions by investment funds and milder

weather forecasts lowering heating demand.

"Incremental revisions to weather forecasts for north-west

Europe over the rest of this month have weighed heavily on

heating demand expectations, helping to ease concerns for the

region's quick underground gas storage withdrawals in recent

weeks, which would have to be made up again next summer," Good

said.

EU gas storage inventories are currently around 80.16% full,

data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed, down from 91% at the

same time last year and below the 5-year average of 83%.

"The question now is at what levels inventories will be at

the end of the winter and whether there will be enough time to

rebuild before the next winter," said Hans Van Cleef, chief

energy economist at PZ - Energy.

"The fact is that the forward curve is in contango (where

the LNG futures price is higher than the spot price) leaves no

incentive to start buying gas in the summer for storage and

usage in winter 25-26. This could lead to even more upward price

pressure in the course of next year," Van Cleef said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West

Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in

January on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.962/mmBtu on Dec. 12, a

$0.14/mmBtu discount to the January gas price at the Dutch TTF

hub.

Argus assessed the price at $12.900/mmBtu, while Spark

Commodities assessed it at $12.914/mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Panama Canal

is currently closed, signalling U.S. cargos are incentivised to

deliver to north-west Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst

Qasim Afghan.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose for the third week

running to $22,750/day on Friday, while Pacific rates fell to

$21,250/day, Afghan added.

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