SINGAPORE, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied
natural gas (LNG) prices rose to an over-one-year high this
week, amid forecasts of colder temperatures and as concerns of
Europe's storage levels persist.
The average LNG price for March delivery into northeast Asia
was at $16.10 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), the highest since November 2023, industry sources
estimated.
"The main market concern is the high rate of withdrawals
from Europe's gas inventories... The region appears on track to
import 11 million tons of LNG in February," said Siamak Adibi,
director for gas and LNG supply analytics at FGE.
"Europe will certainly need higher LNG imports this year to
address higher gas consumption and lower gas inventories. If
Asian demand strengthens, market tightness could have a greater
impact on spot prices."
Asian prices were also supported as the market needs to
remain competitive and keep itself priced into some spot
volumes, for a baseline level of LNG to flow into Asia, said
Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.
Several LNG cargoes were diverted from Asia to Europe, on
higher European prices and weaker Asian demand.
Additionally, Tokyo and Seoul are both forecast for cold
snaps towards the end of the month, though this is set to be
followed by a reversion to seasonal average temperatures by the
end of the month, said Argus' Senior.
In Europe, gas prices eased from two-year highs on forecasts
of warmer temperatures, ongoing U.S. efforts to end the war in
Ukraine and talks of less rigid gas storage targets.
Still, market uncertainties remain as Europe's inventories
have dropped to around 47%, with still some winter months to
come, said Hans Van Cleef, chief energy economist at PZ-Energy.
"Risks of a further or even faster depletion of inventories
will continue to build on the already negative sentiment in the
markets."
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West
Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in
March on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $15.137/mmBtu on February 13,
a $0.55/mmBtu discount to the March gas price at the Dutch TTF
hub.
Argus assessed the price at $15.11/mmBtu, while Spark
Commodities assessed it at $15.097/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good
Hope for February narrowed for a third straight week, but is
still signalling that U.S. cargoes are incentivised to deliver
to Europe over Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim
Afghan.
On LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose to $5,000/day on Friday,
marginally recovering from record lows seen in the last two
weeks, added Afghan. Pacific rates remained steady at
$10,000/day.