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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG gains amid colder weather, Europe stocks concerns
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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG gains amid colder weather, Europe stocks concerns
Feb 14, 2025 4:31 AM

SINGAPORE, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied

natural gas (LNG) prices rose to an over-one-year high this

week, amid forecasts of colder temperatures and as concerns of

Europe's storage levels persist.

The average LNG price for March delivery into northeast Asia

was at $16.10 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), the highest since November 2023, industry sources

estimated.

"The main market concern is the high rate of withdrawals

from Europe's gas inventories... The region appears on track to

import 11 million tons of LNG in February," said Siamak Adibi,

director for gas and LNG supply analytics at FGE.

"Europe will certainly need higher LNG imports this year to

address higher gas consumption and lower gas inventories. If

Asian demand strengthens, market tightness could have a greater

impact on spot prices."

Asian prices were also supported as the market needs to

remain competitive and keep itself priced into some spot

volumes, for a baseline level of LNG to flow into Asia, said

Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

Several LNG cargoes were diverted from Asia to Europe, on

higher European prices and weaker Asian demand.

Additionally, Tokyo and Seoul are both forecast for cold

snaps towards the end of the month, though this is set to be

followed by a reversion to seasonal average temperatures by the

end of the month, said Argus' Senior.

In Europe, gas prices eased from two-year highs on forecasts

of warmer temperatures, ongoing U.S. efforts to end the war in

Ukraine and talks of less rigid gas storage targets.

Still, market uncertainties remain as Europe's inventories

have dropped to around 47%, with still some winter months to

come, said Hans Van Cleef, chief energy economist at PZ-Energy.

"Risks of a further or even faster depletion of inventories

will continue to build on the already negative sentiment in the

markets."

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West

Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in

March on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $15.137/mmBtu on February 13,

a $0.55/mmBtu discount to the March gas price at the Dutch TTF

hub.

Argus assessed the price at $15.11/mmBtu, while Spark

Commodities assessed it at $15.097/mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good

Hope for February narrowed for a third straight week, but is

still signalling that U.S. cargoes are incentivised to deliver

to Europe over Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim

Afghan.

On LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose to $5,000/day on Friday,

marginally recovering from record lows seen in the last two

weeks, added Afghan. Pacific rates remained steady at

$10,000/day.

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