SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied
natural gas (LNG) prices rose this week to their highest level
of the year so far, tracking gains in European gas and amid
colder temperatures in both regions.
The average LNG price for January delivery into northeast
Asia rose to $14.60 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), industry sources estimated.
"This week's further escalations between Russia and Ukraine
have returned a steep risk premium to European gas and by
default Asia's JKM market, despite actual gas supplies being
uninterrupted," said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at
Rabobank London, of the Asian Japan-Korea-Marker benchmark.
European benchmark gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub have been
trading at one-year highs on concerns over Russian gas supply
and as cold temperatures reduced gas stockpiles.
Russia's Gazprom last weekend halted gas supplies to
Austrian gas importer OMV in a dispute over payments, while
Russia's war with Ukraine intensified.
While the risk of Europe losing more Russian gas has lifted
the TTF consistently above the JKM market for the first time
since end-2022, the spread remains narrow and could turn back to
a JKM premium in the short-term if Russian flows continue and
the situation stabilizes, added Schmit.
"But given the intensification of fighting this week we
could equally see the TTF maintain its premium over the JKM for
a while as Europe scrambles to import LNG cargoes. Either way,
markets will be higher for longer."
At least five LNG cargoes have diverted from Asia to Europe
on higher gas prices after Gazprom halted supplies to OMV. But
northeast Asian delivered markets have risen in competition with
Europe, with at least one diverted carrier appearing to have
switched back to head for Asia again, said Samuel Good, head of
LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus.
In Japan, while lower temperatures have recently led to
higher gas consumption and power prices, nuclear restarts could
reduce reliance on gas-fired power generation and ease LNG
demand, said Rystad Energy in a note.
It added that the Japan Meteorological Agency still
forecasts a 50-60% probability of above-average temperatures
until Nov. 29.
Meanwhile, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily
North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes
delivered in January on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $14.800/mmBtu
on Nov. 21, a $0.25/mmBtu discount to the January gas price at
the Dutch TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price at $14.790/mmBtu, while Spark
Commodities assessed the December delivery price at
$14.635/mmBtu.
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to $15,500/day on
Friday, wiping out gains made in the last two weeks, said Spark
Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. Pacific rates declined to
$23,000/day.