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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG gains amid colder weather, stronger Europe gas prices
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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG gains amid colder weather, stronger Europe gas prices
Nov 22, 2024 3:38 AM

SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied

natural gas (LNG) prices rose this week to their highest level

of the year so far, tracking gains in European gas and amid

colder temperatures in both regions.

The average LNG price for January delivery into northeast

Asia rose to $14.60 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), industry sources estimated.

"This week's further escalations between Russia and Ukraine

have returned a steep risk premium to European gas and by

default Asia's JKM market, despite actual gas supplies being

uninterrupted," said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at

Rabobank London, of the Asian Japan-Korea-Marker benchmark.

European benchmark gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub have been

trading at one-year highs on concerns over Russian gas supply

and as cold temperatures reduced gas stockpiles.

Russia's Gazprom last weekend halted gas supplies to

Austrian gas importer OMV in a dispute over payments, while

Russia's war with Ukraine intensified.

While the risk of Europe losing more Russian gas has lifted

the TTF consistently above the JKM market for the first time

since end-2022, the spread remains narrow and could turn back to

a JKM premium in the short-term if Russian flows continue and

the situation stabilizes, added Schmit.

"But given the intensification of fighting this week we

could equally see the TTF maintain its premium over the JKM for

a while as Europe scrambles to import LNG cargoes. Either way,

markets will be higher for longer."

At least five LNG cargoes have diverted from Asia to Europe

on higher gas prices after Gazprom halted supplies to OMV. But

northeast Asian delivered markets have risen in competition with

Europe, with at least one diverted carrier appearing to have

switched back to head for Asia again, said Samuel Good, head of

LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus.

In Japan, while lower temperatures have recently led to

higher gas consumption and power prices, nuclear restarts could

reduce reliance on gas-fired power generation and ease LNG

demand, said Rystad Energy in a note.

It added that the Japan Meteorological Agency still

forecasts a 50-60% probability of above-average temperatures

until Nov. 29.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily

North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes

delivered in January on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $14.800/mmBtu

on Nov. 21, a $0.25/mmBtu discount to the January gas price at

the Dutch TTF hub.

Argus assessed the price at $14.790/mmBtu, while Spark

Commodities assessed the December delivery price at

$14.635/mmBtu.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to $15,500/day on

Friday, wiping out gains made in the last two weeks, said Spark

Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. Pacific rates declined to

$23,000/day.

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