LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural
gas (LNG) prices were slightly down this week on high storage
inventories, continued weak demand and lack of progress on peace
talks for Ukraine.
The average LNG price for October delivery into north-east
Asia was at $11.40 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), down from $11.65 /mmBtu last week, industry sources
estimated.
"We expect further downside to Asian LNG prices, as storage
levels remain elevated, while the supply picture continues to
firm," said Go Katayama, LNG and gas analyst at data analytics
firm Kpler.
Although Japan's summer heat continues, demand for November
heating is lagging. Meanwhile, China is leaning more heavily on
domestic gas and pipeline imports, reducing reliance on spot LNG
and South Korea is well-stocked, exerting further downside
pressure.
"Amid these conditions, spot prices may need to test below
the $10/mmBtu threshold to revive meaningful buying interest,"
Katayama added.
Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus said that prices
were affected by the lack of an immediate progress on peace
talks for Ukraine, which may lead to an eventual unsanctioning
of just over 15 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG export
capacity.
In China, some of the national oil companies (NOCs) were
re-offering cargoes and higher stocks are limiting injection
demand, while and strong hydro generation in Guangdong has
weighed on gas generation economics, Senior said.
Cooler summer in South and Southeast Asia, has weighed on
spot demand, he added.
In Europe, gas prices steadied on Friday around firmer
levels reached in the previous session, as attention turns to
upcoming heavy maintenance in Norway and gas storage filling
needs before the winter.
"The market is feeling fairly comfortable with European
storage filling steadily, Chinese demand remaining low and new
projects including U.S. Plaquemines and LNG Canada building up
output," said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at ICIS.
Froley added that if the early months of winter prove
comfortable, the market may start sliding further in the second
half of winter and into summer 2026.
Aly Blakeway, manager of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global
Commodity Insights, said that Europe continues to lure in the
brunt of US supply despite the relatively lacklustre demand.
LNG imports into the continent remain healthy with
expectations for an uptick in procurement of the super-chilled
fuel ahead of the heating season, he added.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West
Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in
October on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $10.857/mmBtu on August 21,
a $0.525/mmBtu discount to the September futures price at the
TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price at $10.87/mmBtu, while Spark
Commodities assessed it at $10.809/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good
Hope is still incentivising U.S. cargos to deliver to Europe.
The arbitrage via Panama is marginally pointing to Europe, said
Spark Commodities analyst Max Glen-Doepel.
Global LNG freight rates have marginally increased this
week, with the Atlantic rates assessed at $36,500/day and
Pacific rates at $35,000/day, he added.