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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

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S&P 500 futures little changed, Nikkei on holiday

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US CPI, retail data to refine outlook for rates

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Dollar edges up on yen, carry trade steadies

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Asian stocks got the week off

to a quiet start on Monday as a holiday in Japan removed one

source of recent volatility, and investors hunkered down for

major U.S. and Chinese economic data for an update on global

growth prospects.

Key for the Federal Reserve will be U.S. consumer prices on

Wednesday where economists look for rises of 0.2% in both the

headline and core, with the annual core slowing a tick to 3.2%.

"That would likely bolster the Fed's confidence that

disinflation is ongoing, allowing for a rate cut in September,

but a core run-rate still above target should also speak against

a larger 50bp cut or an intra-meeting cut," said analysts at

Barclays in a note.

"Moreover, we expect a robust 0.8% m/m increase in headline

retail sales, pointing to continued resilience in the engine of

the economy, the consumer, on the back of solid income and

wealth fundamentals."

As well as July retail sales, there is data on industrial

output and housing starts, along with several surveys on

regional manufacturing and consumer sentiment.

The futures market currently implies a 49% chance of the Fed

cutting by 50 basis points in September, though that is down

from 100% a week ago when Japanese equities went into free fall.

Early Monday, Nikkei futures traded at 35,370

compared to a cash close of 35,025. MSCI's broadest index of

Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were little

changed in thin trading. So far, around 91% of the S&P 500 have

reported earnings and 78% of those have beaten the Street.

Results from Walmart ( WMT ) and Home Depot ( HD ) this week

will offer a snapshot on how U.S. consumers are holding up.

China issues figures on retail sales and industrial

production on Thursday, which are expected to show the economy

continuing to underperform, underlining the need for more

stimulus.

In currency markets, the dollar edged up 0.2% to 146.92 yen

, and away from last week's deep low of 141.68, while

the euro was steady at $1.0915.

BofA FX strategist Shusuke Yamada thinks the rush to unwind

yen carry trades - borrowing at low rates to buy higher yielding

assets - has mostly run its course with speculative yen short

positions having fallen by 60%.

"Longer-term, structural outflows from corporate foreign

direct investment and retail ownership of international equities

should drive yen weakness," he adds, and sees the dollar at

155.00 yen by year-end.

Data from the IMM exchange showed net short positions in

dollar/yen were down at 11,354 compared to 184,000 in early

July.

In commodity markets, gold held at $2,420 an ounce,

after dipping slightly last week.

Oil prices inched up, having bounced 3.5% last week as fears

of a widening Middle East conflict threatened supplies.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke on Sunday with

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told him Iran's military

preparations suggest Iran is getting ready for a large-scale

attack on Israel.

Brent gained 5 cents to $79.71 a barrel, while U.S.

crude rose 13 cents to $76.97 per barrel.

(Editing by Sam Holmes)