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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares rebound, hoping for dovish Fed guidance
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares rebound, hoping for dovish Fed guidance
Jul 28, 2024 5:53 PM

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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

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Nikkei rallies, Wall St futures edge up

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Fed, BOE and BOJ all meet this week

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Earnings include Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon ( AMZN ) and Meta

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, July 29 (Reuters) - Asian shares bounced on

Monday ahead of a week packed with earnings and a trio of

central bank meetings that could see the United States and UK

open the door to easing, while Japan might lift borrowing costs

in a step toward "normality".

Also due is the U.S. jobs report for July, closely watched

surveys on U.S. and global manufacturing, along with Eurozone

gross domestic product and inflation data.

The U.S. Treasury will outline how much bonds it plans to

sell for the quarter, while China's politburo meeting could

reveal more stimulus following surprise rate cuts last week.

After a benign June inflation report, markets are wagering

the Federal Reserve will lay the groundwork for a September rate

cut at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing and even

imply a 12% chance of 50 basis points, and have 68 basis points

of easing priced in by Christmas.

"The FOMC is set to hold steady but is likely to revise its

statement to hint that a cut at the following meeting in

September has become more likely," wrote analysts at Goldman

Sachs in a note.

"We now see the risks to the Fed path as tilted slightly to

the downside of our baseline of quarterly rate cuts, though not

quite as much as market pricing implies."

The Bank of Japan also meets Wednesday and markets imply a

70% chance it will hike rates by 10 basis points to 0.2%, with

some chance it could move by 15 basis points.

Investors are less sure whether the Bank of England will

ease at its meeting on Thursday, with futures showing a 51%

probability of a cut to 5%.

The prospect of higher borrowing costs in Japan has been a

drag on the Nikkei which shed 6% last week as the yen

rallied. Early Monday, the index did manage a bounce of 2.2%,

following a firmer finish on Wall Street.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

gained 0.4%, after losing 2% last week.

S&P 500 futures added 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures

rose 0.6%.

Around 40% of the S&P500 by market worth report this week,

including tech darlings Microsoft ( MSFT ), Apple ( AAPL ),

Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms ( META ).

Expectations are high so any hint of disappointment will

test the mega-caps' sky-high valuations.

"With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for

the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a

stock level could resonate across other plays within their

sector and potentially promote volatility," said Chris Weston,

head of research at broker Pepperstone.

"Company earnings don't come much bigger than Microsoft ( MSFT ),

where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of

4.7% - the after-market session on Tuesday could get lively."

In currency markets, the Japanese yen was giving back just a

little of its recent gains with the dollar inching up to 154.15

yen from last week's low of 151.93.

The euro was flat at $1.0855, having found support

around $1.0825 last week.

In commodity markets, gold firmed 0.5% to $2,398 an ounce

, supported by the prospect of a dovish Fed.

Oil prices inched up, having fallen 1% last week amid

concerns about Chinese demand.

Brent gained 20 cents to $81.33 a barrel, while U.S.

crude rose 6 cents to $77.22 per barrel.

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