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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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Nikkei steadies, Wall St futures turn lower
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Fed's favoured inflation index looms large this week
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US Presidential debate, French elections on horizon
(Adds NAB analysts' comments in paragraphs 17-18; updates
prices)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, June 24 (Reuters) - Asia shares slipped on
Monday in a countdown for U.S. price data that investors are
banking on to show a renewed moderation in inflation, while
markets were on alert for possible Japanese intervention as the
dollar tested the 160 yen barrier.
Geopolitics also loomed large, with the first U.S.
presidential debate on Thursday and the first round of voting in
the French election at the weekend.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
fell 0.9%, after touching a two-year top last
week. South Korean stocks fell 0.8%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both
down around 0.1%. Shares in Boeing ( BA ) could face pressure
after Reuters reported U.S. prosecutors are recommending
criminal charges be brought against the aircraft maker.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.2%, while FTSE futures
lost 0.3%.
Japan's Nikkei inched up 0.2%, with the continued
decline in the yen putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to
tighten policy despite patchy domestic data.
Minutes of the central bank's last policy meeting out on
Monday showed there was much discussion about tapering its bond
buying and raising rates.
Japan's top currency official was out early to voice
disapproval with the yen's latest drop which saw the dollar
reach as high as 159.94.
The dollar was trading just a shade softer at 159.70, eyeing
the 160.245 peak from late April where Japan was thought to have
started spending around $60 billion buying the yen.
Demand for carry trades, borrowing yen at low rates to buy
higher yielding currencies, has also seen both the Australian
and New Zealand dollars reach 17-year peaks on the yen.
PARSING THE PCE
Even the euro was testing recent highs at 170.87 yen
, despite being saddled with a round of soft
manufacturing surveys (PMI) which left it stuck at $1.0688
.
"The decline in the Euro area flash June PMI raises some
concern that the nascent rebound is being cut short," wrote
analysts at JPMorgan in a note.
"The abruptness of the drop is notable against the backdrop
of the French election, which was mentioned explicitly by firms
as a reason for the drag."
France's far right National Rally (RN) party and its allies
were leading the first round of the country's elections with
35.5% of the vote, according to a poll published on Sunday.
Manufacturing surveys from the United States, in contrast,
showed activity at a 26-month high in June, though price
pressures still subsided considerably.
The latter shift whetted appetites for the personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on Friday. Annual
growth in the Federal Reserve's favoured core index is expected
to slow to 2.6% in May, the lowest in more than three years.
"Note that low PCE deflator outcomes are needed to keep the
y/y rate from rising through the course of this year given the
string of low prints in the second half of 2023," cautioned
analysts at NAB.
"The Fed is well aware of this as the median dot for end
2024 was 2.8% for PCE, unchanged from its current level and
implying average monthly outcomes of 0.18%."
A low result would likely reinforce market bets on a Fed
rate cut as early as September, which futures currently price as
a 65% prospect.
There are at least five Fed speakers on the docket this
week, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed
Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman.
In commodity markets, gold has felt the burden of a firm
dollar at $2,324 an ounce.
Oil prices also eased a touch after rising around 3% last
week.
Brent slipped 17 cents to $85.07 a barrel, while
U.S. crude lost 18 cents to $80.55 per barrel.