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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares slip as inflation, politics call for caution
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares slip as inflation, politics call for caution
Jun 23, 2024 8:40 PM

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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

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Nikkei steadies, Wall St futures turn lower

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Fed's favoured inflation index looms large this week

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US Presidential debate, French elections on horizon

(Adds NAB analysts' comments in paragraphs 17-18; updates

prices)

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, June 24 (Reuters) - Asia shares slipped on

Monday in a countdown for U.S. price data that investors are

banking on to show a renewed moderation in inflation, while

markets were on alert for possible Japanese intervention as the

dollar tested the 160 yen barrier.

Geopolitics also loomed large, with the first U.S.

presidential debate on Thursday and the first round of voting in

the French election at the weekend.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

fell 0.9%, after touching a two-year top last

week. South Korean stocks fell 0.8%.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both

down around 0.1%. Shares in Boeing ( BA ) could face pressure

after Reuters reported U.S. prosecutors are recommending

criminal charges be brought against the aircraft maker.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.2%, while FTSE futures

lost 0.3%.

Japan's Nikkei inched up 0.2%, with the continued

decline in the yen putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to

tighten policy despite patchy domestic data.

Minutes of the central bank's last policy meeting out on

Monday showed there was much discussion about tapering its bond

buying and raising rates.

Japan's top currency official was out early to voice

disapproval with the yen's latest drop which saw the dollar

reach as high as 159.94.

The dollar was trading just a shade softer at 159.70, eyeing

the 160.245 peak from late April where Japan was thought to have

started spending around $60 billion buying the yen.

Demand for carry trades, borrowing yen at low rates to buy

higher yielding currencies, has also seen both the Australian

and New Zealand dollars reach 17-year peaks on the yen.

PARSING THE PCE

Even the euro was testing recent highs at 170.87 yen

, despite being saddled with a round of soft

manufacturing surveys (PMI) which left it stuck at $1.0688

.

"The decline in the Euro area flash June PMI raises some

concern that the nascent rebound is being cut short," wrote

analysts at JPMorgan in a note.

"The abruptness of the drop is notable against the backdrop

of the French election, which was mentioned explicitly by firms

as a reason for the drag."

France's far right National Rally (RN) party and its allies

were leading the first round of the country's elections with

35.5% of the vote, according to a poll published on Sunday.

Manufacturing surveys from the United States, in contrast,

showed activity at a 26-month high in June, though price

pressures still subsided considerably.

The latter shift whetted appetites for the personal

consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on Friday. Annual

growth in the Federal Reserve's favoured core index is expected

to slow to 2.6% in May, the lowest in more than three years.

"Note that low PCE deflator outcomes are needed to keep the

y/y rate from rising through the course of this year given the

string of low prints in the second half of 2023," cautioned

analysts at NAB.

"The Fed is well aware of this as the median dot for end

2024 was 2.8% for PCE, unchanged from its current level and

implying average monthly outcomes of 0.18%."

A low result would likely reinforce market bets on a Fed

rate cut as early as September, which futures currently price as

a 65% prospect.

There are at least five Fed speakers on the docket this

week, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed

Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman.

In commodity markets, gold has felt the burden of a firm

dollar at $2,324 an ounce.

Oil prices also eased a touch after rising around 3% last

week.

Brent slipped 17 cents to $85.07 a barrel, while

U.S. crude lost 18 cents to $80.55 per barrel.

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